The upcoming August 2026 Democratic Party leadership convention stands as the primary driver behind the elevated trader consensus that Jung Chung-rae is unlikely to remain chair through the full year. Internal party factions aligned with President Lee Jae-myung have signaled intent to field a challenger, such as Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, to prevent Jung’s re-election amid ongoing distractions from his public statements and campaign style. Performance in the June 3 local elections and associated by-elections will further shape delegate sentiment at the convention, with underperformance potentially accelerating calls for change. Recent security threats against Jung have prompted party requests for police investigations, yet these have not altered the structural timeline or factional pressures leading into the vote. Traders view these scheduled party processes and alignment dynamics as outweighing Jung’s current visibility in regional visits and policy comments.