Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models indicate a minimum near 11–14°C for Buenos Aires on August 27, driven by southerly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of isolated thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while advection of cooler maritime air from the south keeps readings above seasonal norms around 10–12°C. Model spreads arise from uncertainty in exact wind timing, cloud thickness, and any localized shower cooling, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 10–13°C outcomes. Historical August minima average near 11°C, providing context for why traders assign comparable weight to adjacent bins rather than a single dominant threshold. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine the precise low.