Recent Central Weather Bureau guidance and ensemble models indicate partly cloudy conditions on August 26 after widespread rain on the 24th–25th, supporting a daytime high in the 32–34 °C range for Taipei’s basin. Southwest flow and residual moisture favor scattered afternoon convection that can cap peaks near 32–33 °C, while clearer breaks or stronger subsidence could briefly allow 34 °C under urban heat-island amplification. Historical August climatology places typical maxima at 32–33 °C, but short-range model spread in timing of cloud cover and wind shifts creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these three outcomes. Updated NWP runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.