A major heatwave gripping northern France, with Météo-France placing much of the country under elevated alerts, is the dominant driver behind the market-implied odds favoring a Paris minimum of 20–21°C on August 13. Persistent southerly flow and strong daytime heating to near 38°C limit nocturnal radiational cooling, while the urban heat island effect further elevates overnight readings. Ensemble guidance and recent model runs show limited variability in the low-to-mid 20s°C range for the daily minimum, consistent with climatological analogs for intense August heat events. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability mass to these values because any modest increase in cloud cover or shift in wind direction could drop the minimum by 1–2°C, while the core forecast consensus keeps it anchored near 21°C.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Paris on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 13?
21°C 42%
20°C 31%
19°C 17%
22°C 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
17%
20°C
31%
21°C
42%
22°C
8%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 42%
20°C 31%
19°C 17%
22°C 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
$168 Vol.
3%
19°C
$245 Vol.
17%
20°C
$87 Vol.
31%
21°C
$623 Vol.
42%
22°C
$209 Vol.
8%
23°C
$73 Vol.
6%
24°C
$395 Vol.
2%
25°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$275 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$26 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A major heatwave gripping northern France, with Météo-France placing much of the country under elevated alerts, is the dominant driver behind the market-implied odds favoring a Paris minimum of 20–21°C on August 13. Persistent southerly flow and strong daytime heating to near 38°C limit nocturnal radiational cooling, while the urban heat island effect further elevates overnight readings. Ensemble guidance and recent model runs show limited variability in the low-to-mid 20s°C range for the daily minimum, consistent with climatological analogs for intense August heat events. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability mass to these values because any modest increase in cloud cover or shift in wind direction could drop the minimum by 1–2°C, while the core forecast consensus keeps it anchored near 21°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,504Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 13, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A major heatwave gripping northern France, with Météo-France placing much of the country under elevated alerts, is the dominant driver behind the market-implied odds favoring a Paris minimum of 20–21°C on August 13. Persistent southerly flow and strong daytime heating to near 38°C limit nocturnal radiational cooling, while the urban heat island effect further elevates overnight readings. Ensemble guidance and recent model runs show limited variability in the low-to-mid 20s°C range for the daily minimum, consistent with climatological analogs for intense August heat events. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability mass to these values because any modest increase in cloud cover or shift in wind direction could drop the minimum by 1–2°C, while the core forecast consensus keeps it anchored near 21°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,504Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 13, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A major heatwave gripping northern France, with Météo-France placing much of the country under elevated alerts, is the dominant driver behind the market-implied odds favoring a Paris minimum of 20–21°C on August 13. Persistent southerly flow and strong daytime heating to near 38°C limit nocturnal radiational cooling, while the urban heat island effect further elevates overnight readings. Ensemble guidance and recent model runs show limited variability in the low-to-mid 20s°C range for the daily minimum, consistent with climatological analogs for intense August heat events. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability mass to these values because any modest increase in cloud cover or shift in wind direction could drop the minimum by 1–2°C, while the core forecast consensus keeps it anchored near 21°C.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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