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icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Politika·Out

Major US official out by May 31?

icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Politika·Out

Major US official out by May 31?

May 31

May 31

16% tsansa
Polymarket

$19,844 Vol.

16% tsansa
Polymarket

$19,844 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigning an 84.5% implied probability to no major U.S. official departure by May 31 reflects post-spring stabilization in the Trump administration after multiple early second-term exits, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Attorney General Pam Bondi's early-April transition. No cabinet secretaries, FBI leadership changes, or congressional departures have been confirmed in the past three weeks, and recent non-qualifying exits such as National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent's March resignation fall outside the market's criteria. With only two weeks remaining until the deadline and no active scandals, Senate confirmation pressures, or policy clashes reported, historical patterns of slowing cabinet churn reinforce the low likelihood of further turnover before May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,844
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigning an 84.5% implied probability to no major U.S. official departure by May 31 reflects post-spring stabilization in the Trump administration after multiple early second-term exits, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Attorney General Pam Bondi's early-April transition. No cabinet secretaries, FBI leadership changes, or congressional departures have been confirmed in the past three weeks, and recent non-qualifying exits such as National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent's March resignation fall outside the market's criteria. With only two weeks remaining until the deadline and no active scandals, Senate confirmation pressures, or policy clashes reported, historical patterns of slowing cabinet churn reinforce the low likelihood of further turnover before May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,844
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Major US official out by May 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 16% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 16¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 16% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Major US official out by May 31?" ay naka-generate ng $19.8K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 27, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Major US official out by May 31?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Major US official out by May 31?" ay 16% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 16% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Major US official out by May 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.