Meta's "Mango" AI model, a multimodal image and video generator codenamed for release in the first half of 2026, faces trader skepticism after a March performance shortfall prompted delays in its development at the company's TBD Lab, alongside the text-focused "Avocado." Initial Wall Street Journal reporting in December 2025 highlighted ambitious plans to rival Google Gemini and OpenAI's video tools, but recent hiring from OpenAI's Stargate project and Mark Zuckerberg's hands-on coding with the AI team signal accelerated efforts. Polymarket traders reflect this tension in closely contested implied probabilities for a June 30 resolution, with Meta's Q2 earnings and potential developer previews as key near-term catalysts amid typical AI launch slippage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMeta "Mango" model released by...?
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$25,356 Vol.
June 30
25%
$25,356 Vol.
June 30
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's "Mango" AI model, a multimodal image and video generator codenamed for release in the first half of 2026, faces trader skepticism after a March performance shortfall prompted delays in its development at the company's TBD Lab, alongside the text-focused "Avocado." Initial Wall Street Journal reporting in December 2025 highlighted ambitious plans to rival Google Gemini and OpenAI's video tools, but recent hiring from OpenAI's Stargate project and Mark Zuckerberg's hands-on coding with the AI team signal accelerated efforts. Polymarket traders reflect this tension in closely contested implied probabilities for a June 30 resolution, with Meta's Q2 earnings and potential developer previews as key near-term catalysts amid typical AI launch slippage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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