Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and subsequent 4.7 updates have driven the market's 68.5% implied probability for the company holding the top AI model by end of June, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic performance with extended thinking modes. Google maintains a solid 22% position through Gemini 3.1 Pro's edge in reasoning tasks such as GPQA Diamond and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release in late April has yet to shift sentiment enough to close the gap at just 5.5%. With no major new frontier drops reported in early May, traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent reliability in developer workflows and long-context output as the key differentiator heading into summer.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAling kumpanya ang may nangungunang modelo ng AI sa katapusan ng Hunyo? (Naka - on ang Kontrol sa Estilo)
Aling kumpanya ang may nangungunang modelo ng AI sa katapusan ng Hunyo? (Naka - on ang Kontrol sa Estilo)
Anthropic 68%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,456,689 Vol.
$1,456,689 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
68%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Microsoft
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,456,689 Vol.
$1,456,689 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$30,600 Vol.
68%
$18,386 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,358 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,987 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,158 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,544 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,178 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,919 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,906 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,387 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,727 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,373 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,842 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,644 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,679 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and subsequent 4.7 updates have driven the market's 68.5% implied probability for the company holding the top AI model by end of June, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic performance with extended thinking modes. Google maintains a solid 22% position through Gemini 3.1 Pro's edge in reasoning tasks such as GPQA Diamond and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release in late April has yet to shift sentiment enough to close the gap at just 5.5%. With no major new frontier drops reported in early May, traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent reliability in developer workflows and long-context output as the key differentiator heading into summer.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,456,689Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and subsequent 4.7 updates have driven the market's 68.5% implied probability for the company holding the top AI model by end of June, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic performance with extended thinking modes. Google maintains a solid 22% position through Gemini 3.1 Pro's edge in reasoning tasks such as GPQA Diamond and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release in late April has yet to shift sentiment enough to close the gap at just 5.5%. With no major new frontier drops reported in early May, traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent reliability in developer workflows and long-context output as the key differentiator heading into summer.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,456,689Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and subsequent 4.7 updates have driven the market's 68.5% implied probability for the company holding the top AI model by end of June, thanks to leading results on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and strong agentic performance with extended thinking modes. Google maintains a solid 22% position through Gemini 3.1 Pro's edge in reasoning tasks such as GPQA Diamond and multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release in late April has yet to shift sentiment enough to close the gap at just 5.5%. With no major new frontier drops reported in early May, traders appear focused on Anthropic's consistent reliability in developer workflows and long-context output as the key differentiator heading into summer.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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