Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 create substantial uncertainty around the next national security minister, as coalition negotiations will determine portfolio allocation after results are finalized. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the current holder from Otzma Yehudit, has publicly prioritized the defense ministry for himself while naming a potential successor within his party, yet Likud has rejected yielding core security roles. This dynamic, combined with polling showing fragmented right-wing support and no immediate government formation, sustains a tight market where Ben-Gvir leads at 25.5% but faces competition from figures such as Amir Ohana, Avi Dichter, and Gideon Sa’ar. The 34% probability assigned to no appointment by late February reflects historical delays in post-election transitions, with separation likely hinging on final seat counts, party leverage in talks, and any shifts in Netanyahu’s coalition strategy.