OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” due to safety priorities have anchored trader expectations for a 2027 debut at a premium to the $852 billion March private valuation. Rapid revenue scaling to an estimated $25–40 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and API demand, underpins the 68.3% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, even as GAAP losses remain elevated. Market-implied odds embed assumptions of continued AI sector multiples and execution on infrastructure deals, while the modest 15.2% on no IPO by end-2027 reflects Altman’s stated floor near $1 trillion and comparable AI listings. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR inflection and any regulatory clarity on safety.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+ 68.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.0%
1.25T–1.5T 10%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$338,499 Vol.
$338,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
4%
1.25T–1.5T
10%
1.5T+
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
17%
1.5T+ 68.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.0%
1.25T–1.5T 10%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$338,499 Vol.
$338,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$28,893 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$26,611 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$64,686 Vol.
2%
1T–1.25T
$39,573 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$29,296 Vol.
10%
1.5T+
$76,446 Vol.
68%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$72,993 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” due to safety priorities have anchored trader expectations for a 2027 debut at a premium to the $852 billion March private valuation. Rapid revenue scaling to an estimated $25–40 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and API demand, underpins the 68.3% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, even as GAAP losses remain elevated. Market-implied odds embed assumptions of continued AI sector multiples and execution on infrastructure deals, while the modest 15.2% on no IPO by end-2027 reflects Altman’s stated floor near $1 trillion and comparable AI listings. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR inflection and any regulatory clarity on safety.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$338,499Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” due to safety priorities have anchored trader expectations for a 2027 debut at a premium to the $852 billion March private valuation. Rapid revenue scaling to an estimated $25–40 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and API demand, underpins the 68.3% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, even as GAAP losses remain elevated. Market-implied odds embed assumptions of continued AI sector multiples and execution on infrastructure deals, while the modest 15.2% on no IPO by end-2027 reflects Altman’s stated floor near $1 trillion and comparable AI listings. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR inflection and any regulatory clarity on safety.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$338,499Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028Binuksan ang Market
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” due to safety priorities have anchored trader expectations for a 2027 debut at a premium to the $852 billion March private valuation. Rapid revenue scaling to an estimated $25–40 billion annualized run rate, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and API demand, underpins the 68.3% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, even as GAAP losses remain elevated. Market-implied odds embed assumptions of continued AI sector multiples and execution on infrastructure deals, while the modest 15.2% on no IPO by end-2027 reflects Altman’s stated floor near $1 trillion and comparable AI listings. Key near-term catalysts include further ARR inflection and any regulatory clarity on safety.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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