Skip to main content
icon for Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner
Politika·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

icon for Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner
Politika·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 24%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. 14%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat 2%

Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag 1.0%

Polymarket
BAGO

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 24%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. 14%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat 2%

Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag 1.0%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Jennifer Austria Barzaga

Jennifer Austria Barzaga

$81 Vol.

24%

icon for Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

$41 Vol.

14%

icon for Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

$41 Vol.

27%

icon for Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

$41 Vol.

1%

icon for Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

$41 Vol.

40%

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.The special election to fill the Cavite 4th Congressional District seat, vacated by the June 2026 expulsion of former Representative Francisco “Kiko” Barzaga, is scheduled for August 29 with proclamation expected the following day. Dasmarinas Mayor Jennifer Austria Barzaga, who filed her certificate of candidacy in mid-July, draws on established local name recognition and family political infrastructure in the district’s main population center. Five candidates ultimately qualified, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and several lesser-known local figures. With roughly one month remaining, trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows a narrow lead for Barzaga alongside viable support for alternatives, consistent with limited public polling data and the influence of municipal-level organization, turnout patterns among the district’s more than 450,000 registered voters, and the short campaign window typical of Philippine special elections. Upcoming official activities through election day could still shift relative positioning.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$225
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 29, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.The special election to fill the Cavite 4th Congressional District seat, vacated by the June 2026 expulsion of former Representative Francisco “Kiko” Barzaga, is scheduled for August 29 with proclamation expected the following day. Dasmarinas Mayor Jennifer Austria Barzaga, who filed her certificate of candidacy in mid-July, draws on established local name recognition and family political infrastructure in the district’s main population center. Five candidates ultimately qualified, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and several lesser-known local figures. With roughly one month remaining, trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows a narrow lead for Barzaga alongside viable support for alternatives, consistent with limited public polling data and the influence of municipal-level organization, turnout patterns among the district’s more than 450,000 registered voters, and the short campaign window typical of Philippine special elections. Upcoming official activities through election day could still shift relative positioning.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$225
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 29, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.

Kaugnay

icon for Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?

Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?

94%
icon for Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?

Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?

81%
icon for Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?

Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?

86%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Leysander Aguilar Ordenes" sa 40%, sinusundan ng "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" sa 27%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 40¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 40% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 24, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" ay "Leysander Aguilar Ordenes" sa 40%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 40% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" sa 27%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.