SpaceX's Starship program has advanced key milestones like multiple Super Heavy booster tower catches and intact Ship recoveries after Flight 13 in July 2026, yet full reusability—demonstrated orbital flight, Ship tower catch, heat shield tile reuse, and actual reflight of both stages—remains unachieved as of mid-September 2026. The upcoming Flight 14 on September 22 targets the first stable orbit and Starlink V3 deployment but defers any upper-stage catch attempt to Flight 15 or later, leaving insufficient time for the iterative testing, regulatory approvals, and rapid turnaround needed before year-end. Persistent challenges with engine relight reliability, heat shield durability, and precision landing profiles continue to shape trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability for "No."