The U.S. banking system's resilience underpins the 75.5% market-implied odds against a failure by June 30. Federal Reserve assessments, including the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, highlight historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquid assets, and funding structures aligned with historical norms, with uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks. The two 2026 failures to date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—were small institutions (under $300 million in assets each) resolved routinely by the FDIC without spillover effects. Absent acute stress signals in recent data or regulatory filings, traders see limited near-term catalysts for additional failures despite ongoing monitoring of commercial real estate and private credit exposures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateUS bank failure by June 30?
US bank failure by June 30?
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system's resilience underpins the 75.5% market-implied odds against a failure by June 30. Federal Reserve assessments, including the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, highlight historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquid assets, and funding structures aligned with historical norms, with uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks. The two 2026 failures to date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—were small institutions (under $300 million in assets each) resolved routinely by the FDIC without spillover effects. Absent acute stress signals in recent data or regulatory filings, traders see limited near-term catalysts for additional failures despite ongoing monitoring of commercial real estate and private credit exposures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Binuksan ang Market: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,293Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system's resilience underpins the 75.5% market-implied odds against a failure by June 30. Federal Reserve assessments, including the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, highlight historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquid assets, and funding structures aligned with historical norms, with uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks. The two 2026 failures to date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—were small institutions (under $300 million in assets each) resolved routinely by the FDIC without spillover effects. Absent acute stress signals in recent data or regulatory filings, traders see limited near-term catalysts for additional failures despite ongoing monitoring of commercial real estate and private credit exposures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$7,293Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. banking system's resilience underpins the 75.5% market-implied odds against a failure by June 30. Federal Reserve assessments, including the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, highlight historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquid assets, and funding structures aligned with historical norms, with uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks. The two 2026 failures to date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia in May—were small institutions (under $300 million in assets each) resolved routinely by the FDIC without spillover effects. Absent acute stress signals in recent data or regulatory filings, traders see limited near-term catalysts for additional failures despite ongoing monitoring of commercial real estate and private credit exposures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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