The current 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, as confirmed by the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks that began on May 15 and show zero development potential through at least May 22. Mid-May conditions feature cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear that suppress cyclone formation well before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic season. Historical records indicate fewer than a handful of May U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1851, underscoring the climatological barrier. While an unusually rapid intensification of a Gulf or Caribbean disturbance could theoretically shift the outcome before month's end, current model consensus and observational data provide little support for such a scenario.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$26,087 Vol.
$26,087 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$26,087 Vol.
$26,087 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The current 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, as confirmed by the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks that began on May 15 and show zero development potential through at least May 22. Mid-May conditions feature cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear that suppress cyclone formation well before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic season. Historical records indicate fewer than a handful of May U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1851, underscoring the climatological barrier. While an unusually rapid intensification of a Gulf or Caribbean disturbance could theoretically shift the outcome before month's end, current model consensus and observational data provide little support for such a scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$26,087Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The current 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, as confirmed by the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks that began on May 15 and show zero development potential through at least May 22. Mid-May conditions feature cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear that suppress cyclone formation well before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic season. Historical records indicate fewer than a handful of May U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1851, underscoring the climatological barrier. While an unusually rapid intensification of a Gulf or Caribbean disturbance could theoretically shift the outcome before month's end, current model consensus and observational data provide little support for such a scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volume
$26,087Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the absence of any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, as confirmed by the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks that began on May 15 and show zero development potential through at least May 22. Mid-May conditions feature cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear that suppress cyclone formation well before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic season. Historical records indicate fewer than a handful of May U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1851, underscoring the climatological barrier. While an unusually rapid intensification of a Gulf or Caribbean disturbance could theoretically shift the outcome before month's end, current model consensus and observational data provide little support for such a scenario.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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