The 79.3% market-implied probability for no named storm before June 1 aligns with climatological patterns, as Atlantic sea surface temperatures in mid-May typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development while vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet remains elevated. The National Hurricane Center currently monitors no organized disturbances across the Main Development Region, and ensemble model guidance through the end of May shows only low-probability, short-lived systems that rarely reach named-storm status. Historical records confirm just eight pre-season named storms since 1950, reinforcing trader consensus that conditions will stay below formation thresholds until the official season opens.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 79.3% market-implied probability for no named storm before June 1 aligns with climatological patterns, as Atlantic sea surface temperatures in mid-May typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development while vertical wind shear from the subtropical jet remains elevated. The National Hurricane Center currently monitors no organized disturbances across the Main Development Region, and ensemble model guidance through the end of May shows only low-probability, short-lived systems that rarely reach named-storm status. Historical records confirm just eight pre-season named storms since 1950, reinforcing trader consensus that conditions will stay below formation thresholds until the official season opens.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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