Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by the USGS catalog showing no qualifying events through May 14 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with a quiet period over the past 30 days, lacking major tectonic releases along key fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where such quakes typically originate. Historically, USGS data indicates roughly 40-50 M6.5+ events annually—about 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with low variance for short windows. With three days remaining, any uptick would require unexpected strain accumulation, but current real-time feeds from the USGS Advanced National Seismic System show no precursors like foreshocks or swarms exceeding baseline rates; traders await daily catalog updates for shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
0 62%
1 32%
2 9%
3 1.9%
$19,226 Vol.
$19,226 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
62%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
<1%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 62%
1 32%
2 9%
3 1.9%
$19,226 Vol.
$19,226 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
$11,526 Vol.
62%
1
$691 Vol.
32%
2
$1,265 Vol.
9%
3
$731 Vol.
2%
4
$2,172 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,394 Vol.
1%
>5
$1,446 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by the USGS catalog showing no qualifying events through May 14 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with a quiet period over the past 30 days, lacking major tectonic releases along key fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where such quakes typically originate. Historically, USGS data indicates roughly 40-50 M6.5+ events annually—about 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with low variance for short windows. With three days remaining, any uptick would require unexpected strain accumulation, but current real-time feeds from the USGS Advanced National Seismic System show no precursors like foreshocks or swarms exceeding baseline rates; traders await daily catalog updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$19,226Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by the USGS catalog showing no qualifying events through May 14 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with a quiet period over the past 30 days, lacking major tectonic releases along key fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where such quakes typically originate. Historically, USGS data indicates roughly 40-50 M6.5+ events annually—about 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with low variance for short windows. With three days remaining, any uptick would require unexpected strain accumulation, but current real-time feeds from the USGS Advanced National Seismic System show no precursors like foreshocks or swarms exceeding baseline rates; traders await daily catalog updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$19,226Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by the USGS catalog showing no qualifying events through May 14 despite continuous global seismic monitoring. This aligns with a quiet period over the past 30 days, lacking major tectonic releases along key fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where such quakes typically originate. Historically, USGS data indicates roughly 40-50 M6.5+ events annually—about 0.8 per week—following a Poisson distribution with low variance for short windows. With three days remaining, any uptick would require unexpected strain accumulation, but current real-time feeds from the USGS Advanced National Seismic System show no precursors like foreshocks or swarms exceeding baseline rates; traders await daily catalog updates for shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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