Recent polling averages place the AfD at 35–36 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, with the SPD trailing at 27–29 percent and remaining parties well behind in a 71-seat chamber requiring 36 seats for an absolute majority. Proportional representation combined with consistent multi-party fragmentation leaves the AfD far short of the vote share needed for sole control, while other parties maintain a longstanding refusal to enter coalitions. This sustained gap, evident across surveys from Infratest dimap and INSA through early July, underpins traders’ strong consensus against an AfD majority. Late swings in turnout or unforeseen events could narrow margins but would require unprecedented shifts to alter the outcome before election day.