**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 90% reflects the Department of Justice’s repeated public conclusion, after reviewing millions of pages released under the 2025 Epstein Files Transparency Act, that the documents contain no prosecutable new evidence against uncharged third parties in U.S. jurisdictions.** Major releases occurred in December 2025 and on January 30, 2026, totaling roughly 3.5 million pages plus videos and images drawn from prior Florida and New York investigations. Senior DOJ officials, including Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, stated in early 2026 that internal reviews found insufficient credible material to support additional indictments, noting the absence of a “client list” or blackmail evidence meeting evidentiary thresholds. No federal or state charges tied specifically to the post-December 19, 2025 disclosures have been announced through August 2026. Key barriers include statutes of limitations on older conduct, the difficulty of corroborating decades-old allegations to indictment standards, and prior investigative conclusions that existing files did not warrant new cases. While some international actions and congressional scrutiny have occurred, U.S. prosecutors have maintained that the disclosures do not alter charging decisions. With the market resolving December 31, 2026, the lack of movement since the final major release continues to anchor the strong probability traders assign to “No.”