Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.