Recent US military strikes on Iran, which reportedly killed senior leadership, have prompted Iranian lawmakers to submit formal proposals in parliament for NPT withdrawal under Article X and a revised defense doctrine, citing treaty violations and eroded national interests. These follow earlier 2026 bills that stalled without action, alongside Iran's prior suspension of most IAEA inspections and verification while retaining NPT membership. Traders assign an 85% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the multi-month notice requirement, need for Supreme Leader and Majlis approval, ongoing US-Iran diplomatic channels including memoranda of understanding, and Iran's pattern of using such threats for leverage without full exit. Scheduled IAEA board meetings and potential negotiations could further delay or avert the step.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
15% tsansa
$381,806 Vol.
$381,806 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% tsansa
$381,806 Vol.
$381,806 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US military strikes on Iran, which reportedly killed senior leadership, have prompted Iranian lawmakers to submit formal proposals in parliament for NPT withdrawal under Article X and a revised defense doctrine, citing treaty violations and eroded national interests. These follow earlier 2026 bills that stalled without action, alongside Iran's prior suspension of most IAEA inspections and verification while retaining NPT membership. Traders assign an 85% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the multi-month notice requirement, need for Supreme Leader and Majlis approval, ongoing US-Iran diplomatic channels including memoranda of understanding, and Iran's pattern of using such threats for leverage without full exit. Scheduled IAEA board meetings and potential negotiations could further delay or avert the step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$381,806Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent US military strikes on Iran, which reportedly killed senior leadership, have prompted Iranian lawmakers to submit formal proposals in parliament for NPT withdrawal under Article X and a revised defense doctrine, citing treaty violations and eroded national interests. These follow earlier 2026 bills that stalled without action, alongside Iran's prior suspension of most IAEA inspections and verification while retaining NPT membership. Traders assign an 85% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the multi-month notice requirement, need for Supreme Leader and Majlis approval, ongoing US-Iran diplomatic channels including memoranda of understanding, and Iran's pattern of using such threats for leverage without full exit. Scheduled IAEA board meetings and potential negotiations could further delay or avert the step.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$381,806Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military strikes on Iran, which reportedly killed senior leadership, have prompted Iranian lawmakers to submit formal proposals in parliament for NPT withdrawal under Article X and a revised defense doctrine, citing treaty violations and eroded national interests. These follow earlier 2026 bills that stalled without action, alongside Iran's prior suspension of most IAEA inspections and verification while retaining NPT membership. Traders assign an 85% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the multi-month notice requirement, need for Supreme Leader and Majlis approval, ongoing US-Iran diplomatic channels including memoranda of understanding, and Iran's pattern of using such threats for leverage without full exit. Scheduled IAEA board meetings and potential negotiations could further delay or avert the step.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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