Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by indirect negotiations resumed under the Trump administration after a brief 2026 war and ceasefire, with Oman and Pakistan as mediators. Key recent momentum stems from Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal—offering to transfer highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country—amid pressures to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade and surging oil prices, though President Trump rejected it as "totally unacceptable" for insufficient curbs on enrichment. April proposals clashed over suspension terms, with the US seeking a 20-year nuclear pause versus Iran's five-year counter amid IAEA reports of Iran's 60% enriched stockpile exceeding prior limits. Domestic protests in Iran and sanctions heighten compromise incentives, but verification challenges and escalation risks temper optimism ahead of potential next rounds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$1,328,003 Vol.
$1,328,003 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oo
$1,328,003 Vol.
$1,328,003 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by indirect negotiations resumed under the Trump administration after a brief 2026 war and ceasefire, with Oman and Pakistan as mediators. Key recent momentum stems from Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal—offering to transfer highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country—amid pressures to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade and surging oil prices, though President Trump rejected it as "totally unacceptable" for insufficient curbs on enrichment. April proposals clashed over suspension terms, with the US seeking a 20-year nuclear pause versus Iran's five-year counter amid IAEA reports of Iran's 60% enriched stockpile exceeding prior limits. Domestic protests in Iran and sanctions heighten compromise incentives, but verification challenges and escalation risks temper optimism ahead of potential next rounds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,328,003Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by indirect negotiations resumed under the Trump administration after a brief 2026 war and ceasefire, with Oman and Pakistan as mediators. Key recent momentum stems from Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal—offering to transfer highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country—amid pressures to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade and surging oil prices, though President Trump rejected it as "totally unacceptable" for insufficient curbs on enrichment. April proposals clashed over suspension terms, with the US seeking a 20-year nuclear pause versus Iran's five-year counter amid IAEA reports of Iran's 60% enriched stockpile exceeding prior limits. Domestic protests in Iran and sanctions heighten compromise incentives, but verification challenges and escalation risks temper optimism ahead of potential next rounds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,328,003Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by indirect negotiations resumed under the Trump administration after a brief 2026 war and ceasefire, with Oman and Pakistan as mediators. Key recent momentum stems from Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal—offering to transfer highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country—amid pressures to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade and surging oil prices, though President Trump rejected it as "totally unacceptable" for insufficient curbs on enrichment. April proposals clashed over suspension terms, with the US seeking a 20-year nuclear pause versus Iran's five-year counter amid IAEA reports of Iran's 60% enriched stockpile exceeding prior limits. Domestic protests in Iran and sanctions heighten compromise incentives, but verification challenges and escalation risks temper optimism ahead of potential next rounds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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