Republicans currently hold a narrow but stable majority in the House with 217 seats to Democrats’ 212 and several vacancies, following the 2024 elections. This margin has persisted into May 2026 despite multiple special elections, which have produced no net shifts sufficient to alter control. Recent redistricting rulings and primary outcomes have further reinforced the existing partisan balance without triggering widespread vacancies or resignations. Historical precedent shows mid-session flips are rare absent extraordinary events, and no such catalysts—such as coordinated member departures or court-mandated changes—have emerged in recent months. Traders therefore assign an 85 percent probability that the current majority holds through the November 2026 elections, reflecting the limited avenues for change before voters decide the full composition of the next Congress.