The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11, centers trader expectations of acquittal on the chamber’s composition and alliances. Conviction on any article requires a two-thirds vote of all 24 senators (16 guilty votes), a threshold that remains difficult to meet despite prosecution evidence on alleged misuse of funds, unexplained wealth, and other charges. Multiple senator-judges face detention or absence tied to separate legal matters, prompting debate over whether the constitutional standard is fixed or adjustable based on participation. Recent amici curiae input from retired Supreme Court justices and scheduled arguments on the threshold have not shifted the balance enough to overcome Duterte-aligned blocs within the Senate, where leadership shifts earlier this year also reflected divided loyalties. The extended trial timeline further supports the current market assessment that conviction by year-end is unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
37% tsansa
$13,794 Vol.
$13,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
37% tsansa
$13,794 Vol.
$13,794 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11, centers trader expectations of acquittal on the chamber’s composition and alliances. Conviction on any article requires a two-thirds vote of all 24 senators (16 guilty votes), a threshold that remains difficult to meet despite prosecution evidence on alleged misuse of funds, unexplained wealth, and other charges. Multiple senator-judges face detention or absence tied to separate legal matters, prompting debate over whether the constitutional standard is fixed or adjustable based on participation. Recent amici curiae input from retired Supreme Court justices and scheduled arguments on the threshold have not shifted the balance enough to overcome Duterte-aligned blocs within the Senate, where leadership shifts earlier this year also reflected divided loyalties. The extended trial timeline further supports the current market assessment that conviction by year-end is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$13,794Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11, centers trader expectations of acquittal on the chamber’s composition and alliances. Conviction on any article requires a two-thirds vote of all 24 senators (16 guilty votes), a threshold that remains difficult to meet despite prosecution evidence on alleged misuse of funds, unexplained wealth, and other charges. Multiple senator-judges face detention or absence tied to separate legal matters, prompting debate over whether the constitutional standard is fixed or adjustable based on participation. Recent amici curiae input from retired Supreme Court justices and scheduled arguments on the threshold have not shifted the balance enough to overcome Duterte-aligned blocs within the Senate, where leadership shifts earlier this year also reflected divided loyalties. The extended trial timeline further supports the current market assessment that conviction by year-end is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$13,794Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11, centers trader expectations of acquittal on the chamber’s composition and alliances. Conviction on any article requires a two-thirds vote of all 24 senators (16 guilty votes), a threshold that remains difficult to meet despite prosecution evidence on alleged misuse of funds, unexplained wealth, and other charges. Multiple senator-judges face detention or absence tied to separate legal matters, prompting debate over whether the constitutional standard is fixed or adjustable based on participation. Recent amici curiae input from retired Supreme Court justices and scheduled arguments on the threshold have not shifted the balance enough to overcome Duterte-aligned blocs within the Senate, where leadership shifts earlier this year also reflected divided loyalties. The extended trial timeline further supports the current market assessment that conviction by year-end is unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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