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Politika·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Politika·Congress

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

$38,092 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$38,092 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$5,110 Vol.

1%

May 22

$25,583 Vol.

74%

May 31

$7,400 Vol.

85%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans control the chamber and used their April 23 budget resolution, adopted 50-48, to trigger reconciliation instructions directing the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees to produce legislation by May 15 that increases deficits by up to $70 billion over ten years, primarily for immigration enforcement funding through ICE and CBP. Draft texts released May 4 received a CBO score showing a $72 billion deficit impact, and committee markups are scheduled for the week of May 19 ahead of a targeted floor vote by early June. The process allows passage by simple majority without the 60-vote filibuster threshold, with the House set to follow similar steps before conference and final enactment. Trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline, unified party control, and limited procedural hurdles remaining before Senate consideration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$38,092
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans control the chamber and used their April 23 budget resolution, adopted 50-48, to trigger reconciliation instructions directing the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees to produce legislation by May 15 that increases deficits by up to $70 billion over ten years, primarily for immigration enforcement funding through ICE and CBP. Draft texts released May 4 received a CBO score showing a $72 billion deficit impact, and committee markups are scheduled for the week of May 19 ahead of a targeted floor vote by early June. The process allows passage by simple majority without the 60-vote filibuster threshold, with the House set to follow similar steps before conference and final enactment. Trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline, unified party control, and limited procedural hurdles remaining before Senate consideration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$38,092
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 3 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "May 31" sa 85%, sinusundan ng "May 22" sa 74%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 85¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" ay naka-generate ng $38.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong May 4, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?," i-browse ang 3 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" ay "May 31" sa 85%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "May 22" sa 74%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.