Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including extensive airstrikes and naval operations during the 2026 Iran war, have centered on targeted strikes, a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and responses to Iranian shipping attacks rather than ground forces or regime-change operations. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefires, though strained by July incidents and an expired 60-day negotiation window, have kept diplomatic channels open amid stalled talks and economic incentives tied to nuclear limits and sanctions relief. Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to no invasion before 2027, reflecting high barriers such as logistical challenges, munitions depletion, regional escalation risks, and preference for containment over occupation, even as periodic threats and proxy tensions persist into mid-August.