Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.