The 22nd Amendment's two-term limit on the presidency can only be repealed through a constitutional amendment, which requires two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states—a threshold that has not been approached in recent sessions despite occasional proposals such as Rep. Andy Ogles' 2025 resolution targeting non-consecutive terms. As of late August 2026, President Trump has repeatedly acknowledged that "the law is very strong" while making limited jokes about a 2028 bid, with no accompanying legislative momentum or state-level support emerging. Traders assign 96.5% probability to no repeal occurring this year because the procedural and political barriers remain unchanged, though late-session developments such as an unexpected congressional supermajority or coordinated state ratifications could theoretically alter the timeline before year-end.