Trump's renewed outreach, including scaled-back U.S.-South Korea military exercises and public statements of intent to meet Kim Jong Un later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader positioning on a potential visit. Recent signals from Pyongyang acknowledge the leaders' prior rapport without committing to talks, while South Korean intelligence assessments note dialogue remains possible at any time. A November APEC summit in Shenzhen offers a logistical window, though North Korea's deepened ties with Russia and China raise the bar for concessions such as sanctions relief or nuclear status recognition. The September 24 Trump-Xi meeting may touch on the issue but is unlikely to produce breakthroughs given diverging interests. These dynamics leave outcomes sensitive to any concrete scheduling or North Korean conditions within the resolution period.