WTI crude oil prices experienced sharp volatility during the week of November 2, 2026, falling nearly 12% amid shifting geopolitical expectations. Hopes for de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict rose after Democrats gained congressional control in the midterms, reducing the odds of sustained military action and pressuring prices toward two-month lows near $86. Renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf later provided support, lifting WTI back above $90 and Brent toward $98-100 as traders priced in persistent supply risks. Market fundamentals added downward pressure, with J.P. Morgan estimating a 1.4 million barrel-per-day surplus in October amid recovering Middle East flows and softer demand. OPEC+ maintained November output targets, while the EIA’s latest outlook highlighted constrained regional production supporting higher averages through year-end. Upcoming US nonfarm payrolls and weekly EIA inventory data remain key near-term catalysts influencing trader positioning.