Google holds the highest implied probability at 21.5% for the #3 AI lab spot on the LMArena leaderboard with Style Control enabled by end of October 2026, followed closely by Meta at 17.5% and several Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in the 10-14% range. This reflects a highly fluid frontier where rapid model iterations from Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Meta’s Muse Spark updates, and strong open-weight showings from Qwen and Kimi variants keep capability gaps narrow on style-adjusted benchmarks that discount length and formatting biases. The low individual probabilities underscore intense competition across US and Chinese labs, with outcomes hinging on upcoming releases, benchmark volatility, and any late-cycle gains in reasoning or multimodal performance before the October resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Google 22%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
22%
Meta
18%
Alibaba
14%
DeepSeek
11%
Moonshot
11%
Xiaomi
10%
Meituan
10%
Baidu
5%
Anthropic
5%
OpenAI
5%
Z.ai
5%
ByteDance
5%
StepFun
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Thinky
5%
Microsoft
2%
MiniMax
2%
Mistral
2%
Amazon
2%
Tencent
2%
Nvidia
1%
Google 22%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
$250 Обс.
22%
Meta
$257 Обс.
18%
Alibaba
$221 Обс.
14%
DeepSeek
$145 Обс.
11%
Moonshot
$160 Обс.
11%
Xiaomi
$233 Обс.
10%
Meituan
$392 Обс.
10%
Baidu
$145 Обс.
5%
Anthropic
$194 Обс.
5%
OpenAI
$150 Обс.
5%
Z.ai
$150 Обс.
5%
ByteDance
$286 Обс.
5%
StepFun
$221 Обс.
5%
SpaceXAI
$145 Обс.
5%
Thinky
$231 Обс.
5%
Microsoft
$205 Обс.
2%
MiniMax
$247 Обс.
2%
Mistral
$250 Обс.
2%
Amazon
$244 Обс.
2%
Tencent
$226 Обс.
2%
Nvidia
$221 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds the highest implied probability at 21.5% for the #3 AI lab spot on the LMArena leaderboard with Style Control enabled by end of October 2026, followed closely by Meta at 17.5% and several Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in the 10-14% range. This reflects a highly fluid frontier where rapid model iterations from Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Meta’s Muse Spark updates, and strong open-weight showings from Qwen and Kimi variants keep capability gaps narrow on style-adjusted benchmarks that discount length and formatting biases. The low individual probabilities underscore intense competition across US and Chinese labs, with outcomes hinging on upcoming releases, benchmark volatility, and any late-cycle gains in reasoning or multimodal performance before the October resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,576Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds the highest implied probability at 21.5% for the #3 AI lab spot on the LMArena leaderboard with Style Control enabled by end of October 2026, followed closely by Meta at 17.5% and several Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in the 10-14% range. This reflects a highly fluid frontier where rapid model iterations from Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Meta’s Muse Spark updates, and strong open-weight showings from Qwen and Kimi variants keep capability gaps narrow on style-adjusted benchmarks that discount length and formatting biases. The low individual probabilities underscore intense competition across US and Chinese labs, with outcomes hinging on upcoming releases, benchmark volatility, and any late-cycle gains in reasoning or multimodal performance before the October resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$4,576Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google holds the highest implied probability at 21.5% for the #3 AI lab spot on the LMArena leaderboard with Style Control enabled by end of October 2026, followed closely by Meta at 17.5% and several Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in the 10-14% range. This reflects a highly fluid frontier where rapid model iterations from Google’s recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Meta’s Muse Spark updates, and strong open-weight showings from Qwen and Kimi variants keep capability gaps narrow on style-adjusted benchmarks that discount length and formatting biases. The low individual probabilities underscore intense competition across US and Chinese labs, with outcomes hinging on upcoming releases, benchmark volatility, and any late-cycle gains in reasoning or multimodal performance before the October resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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