Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 98.5% implied probability of finishing first in Rondônia during the October 25 second round, reflecting his decisive 67.45% to 25.89% first-round victory in the state on October 4. Pre-election surveys, including Quaest and Veritá polls, consistently showed him leading Lula by wide margins in this conservative northern stronghold, where right-leaning voters predominate. His performance aligned with broader regional gains for the Liberal Party and endorsements from defeated conservative candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. Lula’s weaker showing in Rondônia, part of a national pattern of rightward shifts, leaves limited pathways for reversal absent major late developments in turnout or campaign events.