**Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite (67.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 15-17, 2026, reflecting his recent daily posting rhythm of roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts.** Recent daily trackers show counts in the mid-teens to low-20s through early-to-mid August, consistent with routine engagement around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok features, and AI commentary rather than any sustained high-volume news cycle or controversy that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket sits at a solid but secondary 30.5%, pricing in the possibility of quieter weekend or holiday-adjacent days, while every bracket above 65 carries just 0.1-1.9% odds because exceeding roughly 22 posts per day remains uncommon absent a major catalyst. Market pricing therefore captures Musk’s established baseline cadence—amplified by his ownership of the platform and frequent replies to industry or cultural topics—while assigning low weight to outlier spikes or slowdowns in this short window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено40-64 61%
<40 39%
65-89 1.5%
90-114 <1%
$363,953 Обс.
$363,953 Обс.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
39%
40-64
61%
65-89
1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 61%
<40 39%
65-89 1.5%
90-114 <1%
$363,953 Обс.
$363,953 Обс.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$90,238 Обс.
39%
40-64
$54,871 Обс.
61%
65-89
$66,071 Обс.
1%
90-114
$66,626 Обс.
<1%
115-139
$48,694 Обс.
<1%
140-164
$16,923 Обс.
<1%
165-189
$8,347 Обс.
<1%
190-214
$3,264 Обс.
<1%
215-239
$4,806 Обс.
<1%
240+
$4,113 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite (67.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 15-17, 2026, reflecting his recent daily posting rhythm of roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts.**
Recent daily trackers show counts in the mid-teens to low-20s through early-to-mid August, consistent with routine engagement around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok features, and AI commentary rather than any sustained high-volume news cycle or controversy that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket sits at a solid but secondary 30.5%, pricing in the possibility of quieter weekend or holiday-adjacent days, while every bracket above 65 carries just 0.1-1.9% odds because exceeding roughly 22 posts per day remains uncommon absent a major catalyst.
Market pricing therefore captures Musk’s established baseline cadence—amplified by his ownership of the platform and frequent replies to industry or cultural topics—while assigning low weight to outlier spikes or slowdowns in this short window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$363,953Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite (67.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 15-17, 2026, reflecting his recent daily posting rhythm of roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts.**
Recent daily trackers show counts in the mid-teens to low-20s through early-to-mid August, consistent with routine engagement around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok features, and AI commentary rather than any sustained high-volume news cycle or controversy that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket sits at a solid but secondary 30.5%, pricing in the possibility of quieter weekend or holiday-adjacent days, while every bracket above 65 carries just 0.1-1.9% odds because exceeding roughly 22 posts per day remains uncommon absent a major catalyst.
Market pricing therefore captures Musk’s established baseline cadence—amplified by his ownership of the platform and frequent replies to industry or cultural topics—while assigning low weight to outlier spikes or slowdowns in this short window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Обсяг
$363,953Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite (67.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 15-17, 2026, reflecting his recent daily posting rhythm of roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts.** Recent daily trackers show counts in the mid-teens to low-20s through early-to-mid August, consistent with routine engagement around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok features, and AI commentary rather than any sustained high-volume news cycle or controversy that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket sits at a solid but secondary 30.5%, pricing in the possibility of quieter weekend or holiday-adjacent days, while every bracket above 65 carries just 0.1-1.9% odds because exceeding roughly 22 posts per day remains uncommon absent a major catalyst. Market pricing therefore captures Musk’s established baseline cadence—amplified by his ownership of the platform and frequent replies to industry or cultural topics—while assigning low weight to outlier spikes or slowdowns in this short window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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