Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFOMC Minutes Reveal Split Committee and Growing Concern Over Persistent Inflation
25 bps increase jumps to 22%12%
The release of the June meeting minutes showed that policymakers were split 9-to-8 on a 2026 rate hike, with some officials actively making a case for raising interest rates due to sticky inflation.
Fed minutes confirm ongoing debate and uncertainty on rate path
No change drops to 78%10%
The July 8 release of the June meeting minutes reiterated the split among Fed officials and the lack of clear forward guidance, reinforcing market uncertainty and causing volatility in the pricing of the 'No change' and 25 bps increase outcomes.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Notes Easing Inflation Risks at ECB Forum
No change drops to 79%11%
Speaking at the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks, further dampening immediate pressure for a rate hike at the upcoming July meeting.
FOMC June Minutes Reveal 'Family Fight' and Deep Divisions Over Rate Path
25 bps increase jumps to 24%14%
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that while the decision to hold rates was unanimous, officials were deeply split on the future direction of rates, with some anticipating hikes due to sticky inflation.
FOMC Minutes reveal hawkish shift and higher inflation forecasts due to Middle East conflict
No change jumps to 90%10%
The release of the June meeting minutes detailed policymakers' concerns over persistent inflation driven by supply shocks and the Middle East war, reinforcing expectations of a higher-for-longer rate stance.
FOMC June Minutes Reveal Officials Split on Future Direction of Interest Rates
No change jumps to 90%9%
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that while the decision to hold rates was unanimous, policymakers were deeply divided on the future path, with some expecting inflation to ease and others worried it would require rate hikes.
Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Division and Commitment to Price Stability Under Chair Warsh
No change drops to 78%7%
The release of the June FOMC minutes confirmed a 9-to-9 split among policymakers regarding a rate hike in 2026 and highlighted a highly condensed post-meeting statement committing to deliver price stability, keeping the market highly volatile.
Fed Minutes Reveal Officials Split on Future Rate Path
No change dips to 84%1%
The release of the minutes from the June FOMC meeting confirmed that policymakers were deeply divided, with some entertaining rate cuts if inflation cooled and others advocating hikes if price pressures remained elevated.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Notes Easing Inflation Risks at Sintra Forum
25 bps increase jumps to 17%7%
Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks, though he maintained a data-dependent stance without signaling the next rate move.
Fed Chair Warsh signals easing inflation risks but commitment to 2% target
No change dips to 82%3%
At the ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking, Chair Warsh noted that inflation risks have eased recently but reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, suggesting a cautious approach to future rate changes.
Fed maintains higher-for-longer stance ahead of July meeting
No change drops to 78%13%
In early July, the Federal Reserve maintained its higher-for-longer interest rate stance with inflation remaining elevated and economic activity solid. Market expectations solidified around no change at the upcoming July 28-29 meeting, with the no change outcome price near its peak.
Market projects high probability of Fed rate hike by September despite July pause
No change drops to 79%12%
Following the June FOMC meeting, fixed income markets projected a 25% chance of a rate hike in July but a higher likelihood of increases by September and December 2026. This reflected market uncertainty about timing but consensus on eventual tightening, keeping the July meeting's 'No change' outcome dominant.
Analysts and economists expect Fed to hold rates steady in July amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties
No change drops to 82%8%
Experts forecast the Fed will maintain current rates at the July meeting due to no major geopolitical or trade disruptions, reinforcing market pricing favoring no change in July.
Fed decision to maintain interest rates seen as temporary respite
No change jumps to 90%9%
Economists and analysts widely expected the Fed to hold rates steady in July, viewing it as a pause before potential hikes later in the year due to persistent inflation and economic conditions.
Analysts expect Fed to maintain rates in July but signal possible hike later in 2026
No change drops to 79%11%
Economic experts and analysts forecast the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at the July meeting, citing no major disruptions, but anticipate a likely rate hike later in the year, supporting the market's mixed pricing between no change and a 25 bps increase.
Weak June Jobs Report and Guarded Remarks from Warsh Cool July Rate Hike Expectations
No change surges to 90%18%
U.S. payrolls rose by only 57,000 in June, significantly missing expectations, while downward revisions to previous months signaled slower hiring. This weak labor data, combined with guarded remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Sintra, led analysts to lower the odds of a July rate hike.
US Job Growth Slows Sharply to 57,000 in June, Tempering Fed Rate Hike Fears
No change jumps to 90%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below the 110,000 forecast. This weak print immediately reduced market expectations for a July rate hike and boosted the probability of the Fed holding rates steady.
June 2026 US jobs report shows slower payroll growth, unemployment at 4.2%
No change jumps to 91%9%
The June jobs report revealed a weaker-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls (+57,000), well below forecasts, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%. This indicated a softening labor market, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates and supporting the no-change expectation for July.
Market Confidence in No Change Strengthens Ahead of July FOMC Meeting
No change jumps to 90%9%
In early July, the market price for the 'No change' outcome rose sharply from around 81% to 90%, reflecting growing consensus that the Fed would maintain rates at the July meeting. The 25 bps increase probability declined to 10%, indicating reduced expectations for a hike.
June 2026 US Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 57,000, below expectations
No change jumps to 90%12%
The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below the forecast of 110,000 and the prior month's revised 129,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%. This softer jobs report reduced market expectations for a Fed rate hike in July, contributing to the high probability of no change in the upcoming Fed meeting.
US Job Growth Misses Expectations in June with Only 57,000 Jobs Added
No change jumps to 90%9%
The June nonfarm payrolls report showed a significant slowdown in hiring, adding only 57,000 jobs compared to expectations of over 110,000. This weaker labor data cooled immediate rate hike fears, causing the 'No change' outcome to rebound.
U.S. Payrolls Miss Expectations in June, Dampening July Rate Hike Odds
No change jumps to 91%11%
The U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly missing Wall Street forecasts of 115,000. This weaker labor market data sharply reduced the probability of a July rate hike.
Futures markets price moderate chance of rate increase by year-end
25 bps increase jumps to 15%5%
Futures markets indicated a path of federal funds rate rising to about 3.8% by October 2026 and approaching 4% by year-end, reflecting expectations of a possible 25 bps hike in July or later in the year if inflation persists.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% ahead of July meeting
No change jumps to 90%10%
Daily interest rate data confirmed the federal funds rate remained steady at 3.50%-3.75%, reinforcing market expectations of no change at the upcoming July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Soft US jobs report eases rate hike expectations for July
No change jumps to 90%9%
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a softer-than-expected 57,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for July 1, 2026, which reduced market expectations for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting, causing a partial decline in the 25 bps increase outcome price and supporting the 'No change' scenario.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals inflation remains too high, declines to hint at July decision
25 bps increase drops to 10%8%
At the ECB Forum, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains elevated and refrained from giving clear guidance on the July rate decision, maintaining market uncertainty and supporting the possibility of a rate hike or no change at the upcoming meeting.
Fed maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% ahead of July meeting
No change drops to 85%5%
As the July FOMC meeting approached, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at the current range, reinforcing the market consensus of no change in July but leaving the door open for future hikes if inflation remains elevated.
Fed keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for fourth consecutive meeting
No change drops to 85%5%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range steady, reinforcing market expectations of no change in the July meeting amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic growth.
July 2026 Fed meeting pending – markets lean toward no change
No change rises to 90%2%
With the July meeting still weeks away, the market’s focus shifted to the upcoming decision. No new data altered expectations, and the “No change” price held steady at 90 % on 6 Jul, confirming that the market expected the upper‑bound to stay unchanged.
July 1 2026 Fed dot‑plot shows median at 3.8 % for year‑end
No change jumps to 90%10%
Ahead of the July meeting, the Fed’s dot‑plot released on July 1 projected the median rate at 3.8 % for year‑end, implying at least one future hike. This reinforced the market’s near‑certain "No change" stance for the July decision, keeping the price above 90 %.
Fed Chair Warsh says inflation 'too high', declines to hint at July decision
25 bps increase drops to 12%6%
In a public appearance at the ECB Forum, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that prices remain too high and refrained from giving explicit guidance on the July rate decision. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon and may consider hikes, supporting the elevated probability of a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Affirms Commitment to 2% Inflation Target at ECB Forum
Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation risks had eased but reiterated the central bank's strict commitment to its 2% target, maintaining a hawkish tone.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Declares Prices 'Too High' at ECB Forum
No change dips to 80%2%
Speaking at the ECB's annual Forum on Central Banking, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation risks remain elevated and declined to hint at a July rate cut, reinforcing the 'higher-for-longer' policy stance.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals inflation remains too high but declines to hint at July rate decision
No change drops to 82%8%
At the ECB Forum, Fed Chair Warsh stated inflation is 'too high' but refrained from indicating whether the Fed would hike rates in July, maintaining market uncertainty and supporting the no change option's strength.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to signal July rate decision, cites elevated inflation
No change jumps to 90%9%
At the ECB Forum, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation remains too high and did not provide guidance on the July rate decision, maintaining uncertainty but reinforcing the cautious stance on monetary policy amid persistent inflation pressures.
Fed minutes reveal split among officials on future interest rate direction
25 bps increase drops to 17%8%
The released minutes from the June meeting showed a division among Fed officials, with some expecting inflation to ease and others anticipating further hikes. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuations in market pricing, with the 25 bps increase outcome peaking and then retreating slightly, while 'No change' remained dominant.
Market trims bets on July Fed rate hike after mixed economic data
No change drops to 82%11%
Following weaker-than-expected jobs reports and guarded remarks by Chair Warsh, market participants reduced the odds of a rate hike in July, reflecting increased uncertainty about the Fed's next move despite inflation concerns.
May PCE inflation data shows persistent inflation pressures
25 bps increase dips to 23%2%
The May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report indicated inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's hawkish stance and sustaining market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate increase in July.
Core PCE rises 0.3 % MoM, in line with forecasts
No change rises to 92%2%
Core PCE data for May came in at the expected 0.3 % MoM, indicating inflation was stable. The data reduced the urgency for a hike, keeping the “No change” probability high (still ~92 % on 27 Jun) and preventing any rise in the “25 bps increase” option.
Traders reduce bets on July Fed rate hike after economic data
No change rises to 78%4%
Following weaker-than-expected jobs data and cautious Fed Chair remarks, traders trimmed expectations for a rate hike in July, favoring a hold. This contributed to the market's increased confidence in the 'No change' outcome for the July meeting.
Federal Reserve raises inflation projections at June meeting
No change jumps to 90%12%
At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed raised its inflation forecasts, projecting PCE inflation at 3.6% and core PCE inflation at 3.3% for the year, both above the 2% target. This reinforced the hawkish tone from the June meeting and supported market expectations of no rate change in July but potential hikes later in the year.
May PCE Inflation Rises to 3.8% Year-over-Year, Keeping Pressure on Fed
25 bps increase dips to 23%2%
The release of May's PCE inflation data showing core inflation at 3.3% and headline at 3.8% reinforced the Fed's hawkish 'higher-for-longer' stance, keeping rate hike expectations elevated.
Fed Governor Cook Highlights Small Business Conditions at Symposium
Governor Cook's remarks at the Small Business Symposium highlighted ongoing economic resilience and challenges, reinforcing the Fed's data-dependent approach. This maintained market caution but did not significantly alter rate hike expectations.
CME FedWatch Tool Shows 62.6% Probability of No Rate Change in July, 37.4% for 25 bps Hike
No change rises to 76%2%
Market data from CME FedWatch on June 24 indicated a 62.6% chance that the Fed would hold rates steady in July and a 37.4% chance of a 25 basis point increase. This reflected ongoing uncertainty but a tilt toward a possible modest hike, consistent with Fed communications and inflation data.
Federal Reserve Releases 2026 Bank Stress Test Results Showing Capital Resilience
No change jumps to 82%6%
The Federal Reserve released its annual stress test results showing all 32 major U.S. banks passed, which cleared the way for major capital distributions and highlighted economic resilience.
Bank of America Revises Outlook to Predict Three Federal Reserve Rate Hikes in 2026
25 bps increase drops to 17%6%
Bank of America broke from Wall Street consensus by revising its forecast to project three interest rate hikes before the end of 2026, further fueling the market's hawkish expectations.
Fed Governor Waller Discusses International Role of U.S. Dollar
Governor Waller's remarks on the U.S. dollar's international role underscored the Fed's cautious stance amid global uncertainties, indirectly supporting a hawkish outlook on rates. This contributed to sustaining market expectations for a rate increase in July.
CME FedWatch Shows 36.3% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in July Following Hawkish Shift
25 bps increase rises to 24%3%
Following the hawkish June FOMC meeting, market expectations continued to adjust. CME FedWatch data indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the July meeting had risen to 36.3%, reflecting growing investor belief in a tightening cycle.
Bank of America revises forecast to three rate hikes in 2026
25 bps increase drops to 18%8%
On June 22, Bank of America analysts updated their forecast to predict three quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed in 2026, lifting the benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5%. This hawkish outlook reinforced market expectations for rate increases rather than cuts.
Market uncertainty leads to partial reversal in rate hike odds
No change dips to 75%2%
After initial hawkish reactions, market prices for a 25 bps increase declined somewhat from their peak, reflecting mixed signals and uncertainty about the Fed's next move amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation.
Bank of America Predicts Three Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 Following Hawkish FOMC Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 25%4%
Bank of America revised its forecast to predict three 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2026, citing sticky inflation and the hawkish tone of Chairman Kevin Warsh's debut press conference.
Bank of America revises outlook to expect Fed rate hikes in 2026 following June FOMC meeting
25 bps increase jumps to 25%5%
Following the June FOMC meeting and hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Bank of America changed its base case from steady rates to expecting a series of rate hikes in 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase at the July meeting, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase price.
Fed dissenters advocate for rate cuts amid economic uncertainty
No change dips to 74%4%
Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of rate cuts, citing slowing growth and inflation above target. This internal division contributed to market volatility and a partial pullback in the probability of a 25 bps hike, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed's next move.
Market reacts to Fed's hawkish tone with increased odds of rate hike
25 bps increase surges to 30%24%
Following the June 17 FOMC meeting and Chair Warsh's press conference, markets increased the probability of a 25 bps rate increase in July, reflected in a peak of 30% market price for that outcome on June 19. This was driven by the Fed's elevated inflation outlook and removal of rate cut guidance.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Uncertainty on Future Rate Moves
25 bps increase jumps to 30%6%
In post-meeting comments, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to confirm whether rates would rise at the July meeting, maintaining a cautious tone. This contributed to market volatility and a peak in the 25 bps increase probability at 30%, before it started to decline again.
Market briefly raises odds for 25 bps rate hike after Fed signals possible tightening
25 bps increase surges to 26%22%
Following the June meeting, some Fed officials' projections indicated a potential rate hike later in 2026, causing a temporary increase in market pricing for a 25 bps increase. However, this sentiment softened as the July meeting approached, with the 'No change' outcome regaining dominance.
Market reacts to Middle East conflict and oil price spikes, increasing inflation concerns
No change drops to 74%12%
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting oil price spikes heightened inflation concerns globally, pressuring markets and reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts. This geopolitical risk contributed to a temporary dip in the no change probability.
Market reacts to stronger economic growth data and inflation concerns
25 bps increase surges to 25%22%
Reports of stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistent inflation concerns around June 19 led to a sharp increase in the market's perceived chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the July meeting, with the '25 bps increase' outcome price jumping from 3% to 25%. This reflected growing expectations that the Fed might tighten policy to address inflation risks.
Fed maintains interest on reserve balances, reinforcing steady policy stance
No change rises to 74%2%
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, supporting the steady monetary policy stance and reinforcing market expectations of no immediate rate changes at the July meeting.
Fed officials signal reduced urgency for rate cuts amid stronger growth and inflation
25 bps increase drops to 82%11%
On June 18, 2026, Federal Reserve communications indicated that recent data showed stronger economic growth and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. This led markets to sharply lower the probability of no change and increase the odds of a 25 bps rate hike in July.
Federal Reserve Board votes unanimously to maintain interest rate on reserve balances
No change jumps to 90%8%
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, supporting the steady monetary policy stance and reinforcing market expectations of no immediate rate changes at the July meeting.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh
25 bps increase jumps to 20%14%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, removing prior language suggesting easing and signaling possible rate hikes later in the year. This hawkish shift raised market expectations for a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed's June statement drops easing bias, signals possible hikes later in 2026
No change dips to 77%4%
The FOMC statement was shortened and removed language indicating a bias toward future cuts, reflecting a hawkish tone under new Chair Warsh. The median forecast for the fed funds rate was raised to 3.8% for 2026, suggesting the potential for a rate hike later in the year, which influenced market pricing toward no change but increased odds for a 25 bps hike.
Fed Chair Warsh initiates review of Fed communication strategy
25 bps increase jumps to 17%13%
At his first press conference, Chair Warsh announced a review of the Fed's communication approach, opting for a more concise policy statement without forward guidance. This move was interpreted as a shift toward less explicit signaling, increasing market uncertainty and supporting the rise in odds for a July rate hike.
June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections shows higher inflation outlook and rate hike expectations
25 bps increase jumps to 20%14%
The Fed's June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.6% and showed nine officials favoring at least one rate hike by year-end, reinforcing the market's shift toward pricing a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed's updated economic projections show majority expect rate hike by end of 2026
25 bps increase jumps to 16%12%
The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections revealed that nine of 19 policymakers anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a shift from prior expectations of cuts. Inflation forecasts were raised, and the median funds rate projection for year-end 2026 increased to 3.8%, reinforcing market pricing for a 25 bps increase in the July meeting.
Kevin Warsh begins tenure as Fed Chair with policy review and steady rates
No change drops to 72%5%
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a shift away from forward guidance and maintained steady interest rates, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation. His comments and the unanimous vote to hold rates steady influenced market confidence in the 'No change' outcome for July.
Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged in First Meeting Under Chair Kevin Warsh
No change dips to 76%1%
At Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, the committee unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement highlighted elevated inflation due to supply shocks and geopolitical uncertainty, signaling a cautious approach with possible rate hikes later in the year but no immediate changes.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting under Chair Warsh
No change drops to 80%13%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the target federal funds rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a steady policy stance despite inflation remaining above target. The statement dropped forward guidance, reflecting uncertainty and a preference for data-driven decisions, which initially caused market volatility but ultimately reinforced expectations for no change in July.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removes easing bias and slashes forward guidance in new statement
No change plunges to 79%15%
The FOMC's post-meeting statement was significantly shortened, completely removing the previous easing bias and forward guidance, signaling a return to a simpler format and a higher-for-longer rate path.
Fed Holds Rates Steady in Kevin Warsh's First Meeting but Signals Possible Hikes
25 bps increase surges to 18%15%
In the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but released hawkish projections showing nine of nineteen officials expecting a rate hike in 2026.
FOMC statement maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, cites solid growth and elevated inflation
No change drops to 74%12%
The June FOMC statement reaffirmed the decision to keep rates steady, highlighting solid economic activity and persistent inflation pressures. The committee's unanimous vote and cautious tone further solidified market expectations of no rate change in July.
Fed Projections Turn Hawkish Amid Persistent Inflation
No change plunges to 75%18%
The Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate forecast for 2026 increased, with nine of 19 policymakers now anticipating a rate hike by year-end 2026.
Fed removes easing bias from statement, signals hawkish shift
25 bps increase jumps to 17%13%
The FOMC's June statement was streamlined to remove language suggesting future rate cuts, reflecting a hawkish shift under new Chair Warsh. The updated inflation outlook was raised, and the committee emphasized the need to maintain price stability, which led markets to price in a higher chance of rate hikes rather than cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50‑3.75 % on June 17, 2026
No change jumps to 94%8%
At the June 16‑17 FOMC meeting, the new Chair Warsh oversaw a unanimous 12‑0 vote to keep the target range at 3.50‑3.75 %. The statement’s removal of forward‑guidance language and a hawkish dot‑plot raised expectations of a future hike, but the immediate outcome was a "No change" price surge to 94 %.
New Fed Chair Warsh holds rates steady, signals possible hikes later in 2026
No change rises to 78%4%
At Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, the Committee unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement highlighted elevated inflation and removed forward guidance, signaling a cautious approach but leaving open the possibility of rate hikes later in the year. This caused the market to strongly favor no change while slightly increasing the probability of a 25 bps hike later.
Warsh kicks off Fed chief era with sweeping review as rates remain unchanged
25 bps increase jumps to 18%13%
In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh led the FOMC to keep rates steady but delivered a hawkish shift by raising inflation forecasts and signaling potential rate hikes.
Federal Reserve Removes Easing Bias and Signals Potential Rate Hike in Hawkish Dot Plot
25 bps increase surges to 24%21%
In Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% but removed its previous easing bias. The updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) surprised Wall Street by showing that the median official now views a rate hike as more likely than a cut in 2026.
Fed statement removes forward guidance, signals uncertainty on future rate moves
25 bps increase jumps to 16%13%
The FOMC statement was shortened and removed explicit forward guidance, reflecting Chair Warsh's preference for less communication on future policy moves. This led markets to price in a wider range of possible outcomes, including a higher chance of a rate hike in July.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins tenure with steady rates and hawkish outlook
25 bps increase dips to 25%2%
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair resulted in a unanimous decision to hold rates steady but with a hawkish tone in the statement and projections, indicating a shift from prior easing bias to potential rate hikes later in 2026.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Hawkish Dot Plot Signals Possible Hike in 2026
25 bps increase surges to 21%18%
At Chairman Kevin Warsh's first rate-setting meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot showed a hawkish shift, with nine of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, which reduced expectations of a prolonged pause and increased the odds of a future rate hike.
Fed Shortens Policy Statement and Removes Easing Bias
No change plunges to 77%16%
The FOMC released a stripped-down policy statement that completely removed its previous forward guidance and easing bias, signaling a return to a simpler, data-dependent format under new Chair Kevin Warsh. This change led to a sharp drop in the probability of the 'No change' outcome as markets priced in a higher-for-longer rate path.
Warsh Launches Hawkish Review of Fed Forward Guidance
No change plunges to 75%18%
Chairman Kevin Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's communication strategy, opting for a stripped-down policy statement that removed forward guidance on future rate decisions.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Warsh's first FOMC meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting featured a more concise policy statement without forward guidance, signaling a cautious approach and supporting market expectations of no immediate rate change.
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Signals Hawkish Shift in Dot Plot Projections
25 bps increase jumps to 17%14%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot revealed a hawkish pivot, with nine of 19 officials projecting a rate hike by the end of 2026, causing 'No change' odds to drop slightly as '25 bps increase' expectations surged.
Fed signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid elevated inflation
25 bps increase surges to 20%15%
Alongside holding rates steady, the Fed's updated economic projections raised the expected year-end federal funds rate to 3.8%, up from 3.4%, signaling a hawkish pivot. Inflation forecasts were increased, and the labor market was described as resilient, supporting the possibility of a rate hike later in the year. This caused market prices to shift, increasing the chance of a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Abandons Forward Guidance and Revamps Policy Statement
No change plunges to 72%21%
In his debut meeting, Chairman Warsh shortened the FOMC statement and eliminated forward guidance, removing the language anchors that market participants relied on to predict future rate cuts.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leads FOMC to hold rates steady amid inflation concerns
No change rises to 95%4%
In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh oversaw a unanimous decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The committee removed forward guidance on rate cuts and signaled a possible hike later in 2026, which bolstered market confidence in the 'No change' outcome for July.
Fed holds rates steady at June 2026 meeting, signals possible hikes later
No change rises to 78%4%
Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC unanimously kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% but removed forward guidance on cuts, raising inflation projections and signaling a possible rate hike later in 2026. This hawkish stance reinforced market expectations of no change in July but potential tightening afterward.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady but Signals Hawkish Shift with Potential Hikes Ahead
25 bps increase surges to 20%18%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chairman, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% but released updated projections showing nine of eighteen officials expecting a rate hike in 2026.
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Warsh Era Begins
No change jumps to 90%6%
The Fed held the target range at 3.50 %–3.75 % in a 12‑0 vote, reaffirming the existing stance and removing forward‑guidance for cuts. The clear hold drove the “No change” probability up sharply from 84 % on 15 Jun to 90 % on 18 Jun, where it peaked at 94 % by 6 Jul.
Kevin Warsh begins Fed chairmanship with hawkish policy stance
No change drops to 81%12%
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting featured a unanimous decision to hold rates steady but removed forward guidance favoring cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and signaling readiness for future hikes. This reinforced market expectations of no cuts and increased the likelihood of a 25 bps hike later in 2026.
Fed raises inflation outlook, signals at least one rate hike in 2026
No change rises to 94%1%
The FOMC's June projections marked up inflation forecasts for 2026 and indicated a median fed funds rate increase by year-end, reflecting a 'higher-for-longer' stance. This shifted market expectations, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts and large hikes, and solidifying the 'No change' outcome as most probable for the July meeting.
FOMC keeps rates steady at June meeting, signals possible hikes later in 2026
No change rises to 94%1%
At its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement removed forward guidance on near-term moves but raised inflation outlooks, signaling potential rate hikes later in the year. This led to a peak in 'No change' probability but also a slight increase in expectations for a 25 bps hike by year-end.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting
25 bps increase jumps to 16%12%
The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, removing forward guidance and signaling a hawkish shift. Chair Warsh's first meeting set a tone of possible rate hikes later in 2026, increasing market expectations for a 25 bps increase in July and beyond.
Fed holds rates steady in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh
No change jumps to 80%5%
In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh led the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement removed forward guidance and signaled a hawkish shift, with projections showing potential rate hikes later in 2026. This reinforced market expectations for no immediate change but possible increases ahead.
Fed statement removes rate cut bias, signals at least one hike possible in 2026
No change rises to 95%4%
The June 2026 FOMC statement removed language indicating a bias toward rate cuts and raised the median year-end fed funds rate projection to 3.8%, signaling a hike is possible later in the year. This reinforced market pricing for no change in July but kept the possibility of future increases alive.
Fed dot plot flips to signal rate hike in 2026
25 bps increase surges to 27%21%
The June 2026 Fed dot plot showed a median year-end fed funds rate projection of 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a shift from expected cuts to hikes. This hawkish projection influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed's Summary of Economic Projections shows hawkish shift with rate hikes expected
25 bps increase surges to 27%22%
Alongside the June 17 rate decision, the Fed released updated economic projections (dot plot) showing nine of 19 policymakers anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a shift from prior expectations of cuts. Inflation forecasts were raised, and GDP growth was slightly lowered, signaling a more cautious and hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase in July.
FOMC Meeting Holds Federal Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75%
No change jumps to 79%5%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement emphasized solid economic growth and elevated inflation, dropping any easing bias and signaling a potential 25 bps hike later in 2026, shifting market expectations toward a hawkish stance.
Fed officials signal potential for rate cuts later in 2026 despite holding rates steady
No change plunges to 75%18%
At the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held rates steady but the Summary of Economic Projections indicated expectations for lower rates by year-end 2026. This mixed message caused some market uncertainty, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase while still favoring no change, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation and growth.
Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Withhold Dot from Central Bank's Interest Rate Outlook
No change dips to 92%3%
Reports emerged that newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would withhold his individual interest-rate projection from the Fed's quarterly dot plot. This move signaled his skepticism toward forward guidance and introduced strategic ambiguity ahead of his first FOMC meeting.
US and Iran Announce Interim Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The announcement of a preliminary peace deal sparked a sharp drop in global oil prices, easing some immediate inflation fears but setting the stage for a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting under new leadership.
United States and Iran Reach Preliminary Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
No change rises to 94%1%
The U.S. and Iran agreed on a preliminary framework to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of easing the energy-driven inflation pressures that have kept interest rates high.
Rising inflation and Fed officials signal rate hikes back on the table
25 bps increase surges to 18%15%
In early June, Federal Reserve officials indicated that inflation was taking longer to return to target levels, reversing earlier expectations of rate cuts. This increased market expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end, raising the probability of a July increase.
May 2026 CPI Inflation Report Shows 4.2% Year-Over-Year Increase
No change drops to 74%8%
The May CPI report released on June 10 showed headline inflation at 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April, driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions. This higher-than-expected inflation reinforced market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady but remain hawkish on future hikes.
May Consumer Price Index shows inflation rising at fastest pace in three years
No change rises to 93%1%
The May CPI report showed a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year rise, the largest gain in three years, driven by surging energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. This data reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and expectations of no rate cuts or hikes in the near term.
Jerome Powell signals likely pause in rate hikes at June meeting
No change rises to 94%1%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would likely forgo an interest rate increase at the June meeting, citing that the current rate level was sufficiently restrictive to slow growth and inflation. This reassured markets about a pause, increasing the probability of no change in July.
May 2026 CPI report shows 4.2% annual inflation amid energy price surge
25 bps increase jumps to 16%11%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.2% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for May 2026, driven largely by a 23.5% surge in energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. This inflation data heightened market concerns about persistent inflation, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve tightening.
May Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation Accelerating to 4.2% Annually
25 bps increase jumps to 25%5%
The May CPI report showed inflation rising 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by surging energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. This reinforced concerns about persistent inflation, supporting expectations of a Fed rate hike in July.
US May CPI inflation rises 4.2% year-over-year, matching expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for May 2026, showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase. This persistent inflation, driven in part by energy price shocks, kept pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its June policy meeting.
US Consumer Inflation Jumps to 4.2% in May on Rising Energy Costs
No change rises to 93%3%
U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, marking the fastest pace of inflation in three years due to energy price spikes from the war in Iran. The hot print solidified expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates elevated and potentially hike them later in the year.
May 2026 CPI inflation rises to highest level in three years
No change rises to 90%2%
The Consumer Price Index for May 2026 increased 4.2% annually, the fastest pace in three years, driven largely by rising energy prices due to the Iran war. Elevated inflation reinforced the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, supporting market expectations of no rate change in July.
May 2026 Consumer Price Index shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years
No change rises to 82%2%
The May CPI report showed consumer inflation rising at its fastest pace in three years, driven by energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. This elevated inflation reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, supporting the decision to hold rates steady in June and expectations of no change in July.
Consumer Price Index shows 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026, highest since April 2023
No change jumps to 78%10%
The May 2026 CPI report indicated inflation running at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by surging energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Core CPI also accelerated to 2.9%. This inflation data supported the Fed's hawkish stance at the June meeting, reinforcing expectations for potential rate hikes later in 2026 and influencing market pricing toward no change in July.
May 2026 CPI jumps 4.2 % YoY as Iran war spikes energy prices
No change jumps to 92%8%
The May CPI showed a 4.2 % year‑on‑year increase, driven by soaring energy prices from the Iran conflict. The higher inflation reading bolstered expectations that the Fed would refrain from cutting rates, reinforcing the "No change" dominance.
US Inflation Reaches 4.2% in May, Highest Since April 2023
25 bps increase surges to 25%19%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a massive surge in energy costs. This hotter-than-expected print forced markets to completely price out rate cuts for 2026 and begin pricing in potential rate hikes.
Consumer Price Index for May 2026 shows 4.2% annual inflation increase
No change jumps to 90%10%
The May CPI report revealed persistent inflation with a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven largely by energy prices. This data reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain rates and possibly hike later in the year.
U.S. consumer inflation rises to 4.2 % in May
No change rises to 88%4%
The CPI for May showed headline inflation at 4.2 % YoY, the highest in three years, confirming persistent price pressures and supporting the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. This reinforced the “No change” price, which stayed above 88 % through 11 Jun.
US inflation climbs to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% due to an energy price surge, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider tightening policy.
Economists overwhelmingly expect Fed to hold rates steady through 2026
No change rises to 93%3%
A Reuters poll showed that 72 of 102 economists forecast the Fed would keep rates in the current range for the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This consensus supported the market's high probability pricing for no change at the July meeting.
Reuters Poll Shows Strong Majority of Economists Expect Fed to Hold Rates for Rest of 2026
A strong majority of economists surveyed by Reuters predicted the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2026, as persistent war-driven inflation reduced the likelihood of rate cuts.
Reuters Poll Shows Economists Expect Fed to Hold Rates for Rest of 2026
A strong majority of economists polled by Reuters predicted the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026 due to persistent, war-driven inflation.
Reuters poll shows majority expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026
No change jumps to 90%7%
A Reuters poll of economists showed 72 of 102 expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation and a strong labor market, supporting market pricing of no change at the July meeting.
Fed Signals Shift At June Meeting With Markets Pricing In 2026 Hike
Analysts and market indicators suggested the Federal Reserve might drop its easing bias at the upcoming June meeting due to persistent inflation and strong labor markets, opening the door to potential rate hikes later in 2026.
Fed Signals Shift at June Meeting, Markets Price in Possible 2026 Rate Hike
No change dips to 93%2%
With inflation remaining elevated and labor markets strong, the Fed's June meeting signaled a potential end to the easing bias, increasing market expectations for no change in July but possible hikes later in 2026.
Goldman Sachs revises Fed rate cut expectations to 2027 amid strong labor market
No change plunges to 72%21%
Goldman Sachs economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market and persistent inflation. This contributed to market sentiment favoring no rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.
US Economy Adds 172,000 Jobs in May, Far Exceeding Forecasts
No change jumps to 94%5%
The U.S. labor market showed unexpected resilience as nonfarm payrolls surged by 172,000 in May, far outpacing the consensus estimate of 80,000-85,000. This strong report reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and supported a hawkish outlook ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
U.S. jobs report shows strong payroll gains in May
No change jumps to 90%5%
The U.S. economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, well above expectations, indicating a resilient labor market. This strong employment data supported the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates, reducing market expectations for rate cuts and reinforcing the no change outcome for July.
U.S. May Jobs Report Shows Strong 172,000 Job Gains
25 bps increase surges to 20%17%
The U.S. labor market added 172,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts, signaling a resilient economy. This strong employment data reduced expectations for rate cuts and supported the case for maintaining or increasing rates, impacting market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.
US Adds 172,000 Jobs in May, Surpassing Expectations
No change rises to 95%2%
The strong jobs report indicated a resilient labor market, which supports the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts and bolsters the case for maintaining current rates at the upcoming July meeting.
May Nonfarm Payrolls Report Shows Strong Job Growth
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, well above forecasts, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This strong labor market data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and supported a hawkish outlook for the Fed.
Federal Reserve Beige Book Highlights Inflation Pressures from Middle East Conflict
No change drops to 82%11%
The June 3 Beige Book reported moderate to strong price increases across the U.S., driven by rising fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. This report underscored persistent inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for the Fed to maintain or potentially raise rates.
June 2026 payrolls increase by 57 K, missing expectations
25 bps increase surges to 24%19%
The June jobs report showed a modest increase of 57 K, well below the consensus, cooling the labor market narrative. The softer data prompted a brief rally in the "25 bps increase" price to 24 %, before it fell back as the June hold was confirmed.
Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if Middle East conflict fuels inflation
No change rises to 93%1%
On May 29, 2026, several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, indicated the Fed might need to tighten policy further if inflation remains elevated due to geopolitical risks. This cautious hawkishness maintained market expectations for no immediate change but left the door open for future hikes.
Fed Officials Signal Possible Future Rate Hike Amid Inflation Risks
Fed officials, including some dovish members, indicated that if inflation remains high due to the Middle East conflict, further rate hikes could be necessary. This increased uncertainty slightly affected market pricing but did not shift the dominant expectation away from no change in July.
Fed Officials Signal Possible Rate Hike Amid Rising Inflation Risks
No change rises to 93%1%
Fed officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, indicated that a rate hike may be needed if inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict persist, reinforcing market pricing for no cuts and a high probability of no change in July.
Fed Officials Signal Potential Need for Future Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise
Federal Reserve policymakers continued to warn that persistent inflation from Middle East tensions could require further monetary tightening, though they noted no immediate urgency to act.
Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise
No change dips to 92%1%
Federal Reserve officials signaled that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the future if Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to drive inflation higher, cementing the 'No change' outlook for July.
Former Fed Chair Powell delivers final inflation reality check amid rising prices
No change dips to 93%1%
In his final FOMC meeting remarks, Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation remains elevated and is moving in the wrong direction, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and supporting market pricing for no rate change in July.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair during inflation surge
No change rises to 93%1%
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair at the White House, inheriting an economy with persistent inflation fueled by the Iran war. Warsh emphasized reform and independence, with markets expecting steady rates in the near term as he begins his tenure.
Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Fed Chair as Traders Forecast Potential Rate Hikes
Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. While President Trump expressed desires for lower interest rates, market pricing and CME FedWatch data showed rising expectations for rate hikes later in the year, with the probability of a July hike climbing to 17%.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
No change rises to 86%3%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair in May 2026, marking a leadership transition expected to influence monetary policy direction. Markets anticipated his first meeting in June would maintain steady rates but possibly signal future hikes.
Fed’s Waller urges removal of easing bias, says rate hike possible
25 bps increase rises to 27%3%
Waller warned that the Fed should drop its “easing bias” and that a rate hike may be needed if inflation persists. The hawkish tone raised the probability of a 25 bps increase, causing the market price for “25 bps increase” to rise to 27 % on 22 May (peak 30 % on 19 May) before falling again.
Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hike if Inflation Persists, Minutes Show
No change rises to 93%2%
The FOMC minutes released in May indicated a split among policymakers, with some favoring rate hikes if inflation does not subside, reflecting a more hawkish stance under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh. This reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed minutes reveal increased hawkish sentiment amid Middle East conflict
No change rises to 93%2%
Minutes from the May FOMC meeting showed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks due to the Iran war, with four dissenters favoring a rate hike. This hawkish tone tempered expectations for rate cuts and supported the market's strong pricing of no change in July.
Fed Officials Signal Longer Pause and Delayed Rate Cuts
No change rises to 93%2%
Fed minutes indicated that officials generally judged the rate pause would extend longer than previously thought, with rate cuts expected later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting caution amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman Signals Three Rate Cuts Before End of 2026
No change rises to 92%2%
Michelle Bowman indicated expectations for three rate cuts later in 2026, suggesting a dovish tilt despite current steady rates. This statement contributed to market confidence that no immediate rate hikes would occur in July, supporting the 'No change' outcome.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Number of Officials Open to Rate Hikes
No change dips to 93%1%
Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed that a majority of Fed officials believed interest rate increases might be necessary if geopolitical conflicts continued to fuel inflation.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Hawkish Sentiment Ahead of July Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 6%3%
The May release of FOMC minutes showed increased concern among policymakers about inflation risks, with four dissenters favoring a rate hike. This indicated a more hawkish tilt within the Fed, briefly supporting some market consideration of a 25 bps increase, though the overall market still favored no change.
Market Analysts Expect No Rate Change in July After April Fed Meeting
No change rises to 92%3%
Following the April meeting, analysts and market participants widely anticipated the Fed would hold rates steady in July, reflecting the Fed's cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks, which pushed the 'No change' outcome price to above 90%.
Fed Minutes Show Increased Hawkishness with Four Dissenters Favoring Rate Hikes
No change rises to 93%3%
The May release of FOMC minutes revealed four dissenting policymakers advocating for rate hikes due to inflation concerns exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. This indicated a more hawkish Fed stance, but the market still favored no change for the July meeting, keeping the 'No change' price high.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Hawkish Views Amid Inflation Concerns
No change rises to 92%2%
Minutes from the May 2026 Fed meeting showed several officials favored removing easing bias language and considered rate hikes if inflation persisted, reflecting increased hawkish sentiment. This caused slight market uncertainty but did not shift the dominant expectation of no change by July.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority of Officials Open to Rate Hike if Inflation Persists
No change rises to 93%2%
Minutes from the April meeting showed many Fed officials favored possible rate hikes if inflation remains above target, reflecting a hawkish tilt. This reduced market expectations for cuts and supported the 'No change' outcome for July.
Fed Minutes Show Growing Hawkishness Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks
No change jumps to 90%5%
FOMC minutes revealed increased concerns about inflation fueled by the Iran war, with more policymakers open to rate hikes. Despite political pressure for cuts, the Fed signaled a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate change but potential hikes later.
Fed Minutes Show Officials See Rate Hike Ahead if Inflation Stays Elevated
Minutes from the April meeting revealed that many Fed officials favored removing easing bias language and indicated potential rate hikes if inflation remains high, reinforcing market expectations for no cuts and possible future increases.
May FOMC minutes reveal record dissent and rising hawkish sentiment
No change jumps to 93%8%
Minutes released after the May meeting showed four policymakers dissented, the most since 1992, and many warned that inflation could stay elevated. The heightened hawkish tone caused the market to virtually eliminate the “25 bps increase” and “50 bps increase” odds, driving those prices to 0 %.
Fed Chair comments emphasize data dependency, no immediate hikes expected
No change rises to 94%1%
On May 18, the Fed Chair emphasized that future rate decisions would depend on incoming data, with no immediate hikes expected. This statement solidified the market's strong preference for the 'No change' outcome in July.
Yardeni Says Fed Will Need July Rate Hike to Appease Bond Vigilantes
25 bps increase rises to 6%1%
On May 18, analyst Yardeni suggested the Fed might have to raise rates in July to satisfy bond market pressures, introducing some speculation about a possible 25 bps increase. However, this view did not gain significant market traction, as the 'No change' outcome continued to dominate.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in its first pause since July 2025, signaling a cautious approach amid somewhat elevated inflation and tentative labor market stabilization. This decision reinforced market expectations for no change in upcoming meetings, including July, keeping the 'No change' outcome highly probable.
Yardeni Warns Fed May Have to Raise Rates in July to Appease Bond Vigilantes
No change rises to 94%1%
Market analyst Ed Yardeni suggested that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might be forced to push for rate hikes rather than cuts due to a surge in inflation triggered by the Iran war.
Yardeni Research predicts Fed may need to raise rates in July to appease bond vigilantes
No change rises to 91%1%
On May 18, 2026, Yardeni Research suggested that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might have to push for higher rates in July to satisfy bond market pressures, injecting some hawkish speculation into the market. However, this did not significantly shift market pricing away from no change.
Hotter Inflation Data Prompts Investors to Bet on Future Fed Rate Hikes
25 bps decrease dips to 1%4%
Following a run of hotter-than-expected inflation data, investors ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve may shift into interest-rate hiking mode later in the year, further reducing expectations of rate cuts.
Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair amid persistent inflation and economic challenges
No change rises to 93%1%
Jerome Powell concluded his tenure as Fed Chair, leaving a legacy marked by persistent inflation above target and cautious monetary policy. His departure added some uncertainty but did not shift market expectations for the July meeting, which remained focused on maintaining current rates.
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as New Federal Reserve Chair
No change rises to 93%2%
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in a narrow 54-45 vote, marking a partisan confirmation amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Warsh’s confirmation solidified expectations for continuity in cautious monetary policy with potential reforms under his leadership.
Senate Banking Committee approves Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair
The Senate Banking Committee approved President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, clearing a major hurdle for his confirmation. This leadership transition contributed to market expectations of continuity in monetary policy.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, marking a leadership change expected to influence monetary policy direction. Markets anticipated a potential shift away from the easing bias, increasing speculation about possible rate hikes later in 2026, though immediate rate changes were not expected.
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as new Federal Reserve Chair amid political pressure
No change rises to 92%2%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed Chair in a narrow 54-45 vote, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh faces the challenge of balancing inflation concerns and political pressure from President Trump to lower rates, signaling potential policy continuity with cautious adjustments.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate
No change jumps to 78%10%
The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair in a closely divided 54-45 vote, signaling a leadership change at the Fed amid rising inflation and political pressure. This confirmation increased market confidence in continuity and hawkish monetary policy, supporting expectations of no immediate rate cuts.
U.S. Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as New Federal Reserve Chair
No change rises to 93%2%
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Warsh's emphasis on maintaining Fed independence amid persistent inflation pressures solidified expectations of a stable, non-easing policy path.
April CPI Inflation Report Shows 3.8% Annual Increase, Highest Since 2023
No change rises to 91%1%
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, driven by higher energy costs linked to the Iran war. This persistent inflation reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates, pushing 'No change' probabilities higher.
Inflation data steady, markets price in no rate change
No change rises to 93%1%
Inflation data published on May 12 confirmed steady price levels, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in July, pushing the 'No change' price to new highs.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy prices
No change rises to 92%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, up from 3.3% in March, with energy prices surging due to the Iran war. This elevated inflation reading kept pressure on the Fed to maintain rates, reducing market expectations for rate cuts or hikes in July.
April CPI inflation rises 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy prices
No change rises to 94%3%
The April CPI report showed inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest in nearly three years, largely due to surging gasoline and energy prices from the ongoing Iran conflict. This heightened inflationary pressure diminished market expectations for rate cuts in July.
US Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation at 3.8% in April, Highest Since 2023
No change rises to 93%2%
The April CPI report revealed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven largely by surging energy prices linked to the Iran war. This unexpected inflation uptick reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain current rates, dampening prospects for cuts in the near term.
April CPI Shows 3.8% Year‑Over‑Year Inflation Spike
No change rises to 93%1%
The CPI for April was released showing a 3.8 % annual rise – the highest since 2023 – driven by soaring energy prices. The jump reinforced concerns that inflation could stay elevated, prompting traders to back a continued hold rather than a cut, lifting “No change” from 92 % to 93 % on May 13.
April CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since 2023, driven by energy prices
No change rises to 93%3%
The Consumer Price Index for April 2026 showed inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, largely due to surging energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. This data diminished market expectations for rate cuts, pushing the 'No change' outcome price to its peak.
April CPI climbs to 3.8 % YoY, driven by oil‑price shock
25 bps decrease dips to 1%1%
April CPI jumped to 3.8 % YoY, the strongest increase since 2023, largely on higher gasoline and jet‑fuel prices. The surge intensified inflation concerns and further eroded confidence in any rate cut, pushing the “25 bps decrease” price down to 1 % and the “50 bps decrease” to 1 % by mid‑May.
US CPI Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Reaching Highest Level Since 2023
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
Driven by surging energy costs from the Iran war, annual inflation rose to 3.8%, further dampening any remaining expectations for near-term rate cuts.
Goldman Sachs and BofA Delay Fed Rate Cut Expectations
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
Major brokerages pushed back their forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027, citing elevated inflation from the Middle East conflict and a strong labor market.
BofA and Goldman Sachs Push Back Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
No change rises to 89%4%
On May 11, major financial institutions revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady through 2026 due to inflation risks and strong labor market data. This dampened market expectations for rate decreases in July, reducing probabilities for rate cuts.
Market anticipates delayed rate cuts in late 2026 and early 2027
No change rises to 93%3%
Surveys and market data indicated that while two 25 basis point rate reductions were expected over the next year, these cuts were anticipated to occur later than previously thought, pushing expectations beyond the July meeting and reinforcing the no change pricing.
April jobs report shows stronger-than-expected payroll gains, complicating rate cut path
No change rises to 90%2%
The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly doubling forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This strong labor market data reduced expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, supporting the market's view of steady rates amid inflationary pressures from the Iran war.
April jobs report shows 115,000 nonfarm payrolls added, unemployment steady at 4.3%
No change rises to 91%3%
The April 2026 employment report revealed stronger-than-expected job growth and stable unemployment, indicating labor market resilience. This reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain rates, contributing to the rise in 'No change' probability to over 90%.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 115,000 in April, Beating Muted Forecasts
No change rises to 91%1%
The April jobs report showed steady labor market growth despite Middle East conflict pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time.
April 2026 jobs report shows stronger-than-expected job gains, supporting Fed rate hold
No change rises to 90%2%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 115,000 jobs in April 2026, exceeding expectations and indicating labor market stability. This reinforced the view that the Fed would maintain current rates, further boosting the 'No change' outcome probability.
Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls Report Signals Resilient Labor Market
No change rises to 90%1%
The May jobs report showed a significant increase in employment, indicating a strong labor market. This data reduced expectations for rate cuts and supported the 'No change' outcome as the Fed balances inflation risks with employment strength.
U.S. employment rises 115,000 in April, signaling labor market strength
No change rises to 91%2%
The April jobs report showed stronger-than-expected payroll gains, supporting the view of a resilient labor market. This reduced expectations for rate cuts and supported the Fed's cautious approach, contributing to the market's preference for no change in July.
Bank of America delays expected Fed rate cuts to mid-2027 amid persistent inflation
No change rises to 86%3%
Bank of America revised its forecast, pushing the first expected Federal Reserve rate cut to July 2027 due to ongoing inflation above target and a strong labor market. This hawkish stance influenced market sentiment, reducing expectations for rate decreases in 2026.
May 2026 jobs report shows 172 K payroll gain
No change jumps to 89%11%
The May 2026 jobs report showed payrolls rising 172 K, well above expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remained strong and that the Fed would keep rates steady. The "No change" price jumped to 89 % while the "25 bps increase" price fell to 5 %.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York speech highlights mixed labor market data and balanced policy stance
No change rises to 88%3%
A May 4 speech by a New York Fed official noted stabilization in labor market data but gradual softening in some indicators, supporting the Fed's balanced approach to monetary policy. This reinforced market confidence in a steady rate at the July meeting.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissents on easing bias in FOMC statement
No change rises to 85%1%
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but dissented against including an easing bias in the April FOMC statement, highlighting uncertainty about future rate moves amid mixed labor market signals and geopolitical risks. This added nuance to market expectations, supporting the no change outcome.
Fed’s forward guidance hints only rate cuts are possible, causing internal dissent
No change drops to 80%6%
The Fed's policy statement suggested that lower interest rates might be the only future adjustment, causing some officials to dissent and raising market uncertainty about rate direction. This contributed to a temporary dip in no change odds.
Fed Forward Guidance Subtly Signals Easing Bias Despite Internal Dissent
25 bps decrease dips to 8%3%
The Fed's policy statement included language suggesting future adjustments would only be downward, sparking rare dissent among some officials who wanted to keep rate hikes on the table.
US GDP growth rebounds at 2.0% annual rate in Q1 2026
No change rises to 83%3%
The Commerce Department reported a 2.0% annualized GDP growth in Q1 2026, signaling solid economic expansion despite inflationary pressures. This data supported the Fed's decision to hold rates steady, reinforcing market confidence in the 'No change' outcome.
FOMC maintains rates steady, signals delayed rate cuts
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change in 2026 and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in the year. This contributed to sustained market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and diminished probabilities for rate decreases.
Federal Reserve Holds Benchmark Interest Rate Steady at 3.50% to 3.75%
No change rises to 88%3%
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate, citing economic uncertainty and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This decision reinforced expectations of a prolonged pause in rate adjustments.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting
No change jumps to 82%8%
The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged, continuing the policy of maintaining ample reserves. This decision supported market confidence in no rate change ahead of the June meeting.
Fed Unanimously Maintains Interest Rate on Reserve Balances
No change jumps to 88%8%
The Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, consistent with the decision to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged, reinforcing the Fed's steady policy stance.
Fed holds rates steady with rare dissent amid inflation and leadership transition
No change rises to 83%2%
In what was likely Chair Powell's final meeting, the FOMC voted 8-4 to maintain rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Four officials dissented, reflecting internal divisions over the easing bias language amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Powell signaled he would remain on the Board until an ongoing investigation concludes.
Senate Banking Committee Advances Kevin Warsh Nomination for Fed Chair
No change jumps to 88%7%
Hours before the rate decision, the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling a potential shift in future policy leadership.
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Elevated Inflation and Middle East Uncertainty
No change jumps to 80%6%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, with a divided vote reflecting differing views on easing. Chair Powell confirmed he would remain as a governor after his chair term ends, reinforcing policy continuity and supporting the market's no change expectation for July.
Powell Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed Will Monitor Energy Risks
No change rises to 85%1%
Powell’s press conference after the April hold emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that the Fed will “continue to monitor” energy‑price risks. The dovish tone used to reassure markets kept the probability of any change near zero, contributing to the steady rise of the “No change” bracket.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at April Meeting with Easing Bias Debate
No change rises to 88%3%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. While Stephen I. Miran dissented in favor of a cut, several members opposed including an easing bias, strengthening the outlook for a prolonged rate hold.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with growing market confidence in no change
No change rises to 83%2%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% in April, with market participants pricing in a 99% probability of no change. The Fed's cautious stance amid persistent inflation and solid growth reinforced expectations of a continued pause through summer.
Jerome Powell announces plan to remain on Fed Board after chair term ends
At the April meeting, Powell stated he would stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity amid economic uncertainty. This announcement reassured markets about policy stability, supporting the no change outcome.
Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged at April Meeting
No change rises to 89%3%
The FOMC concluded its April meeting by keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third consecutive time, citing elevated inflation and rising energy prices.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Persistent Inflation
No change rises to 88%3%
The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in an 8-4 vote, citing elevated inflation and global energy price pressures.
Fed Maintains Rates at 3.50%-3.75% with Notable Dissent
No change jumps to 88%8%
At the April FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady but faced four dissenting votes, the most since 1992, reflecting increased debate about future hikes amid inflation concerns. The statement emphasized data dependency and uncertainty, supporting the market's growing conviction of no change in July.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with divided vote
No change rises to 84%4%
In what was likely Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting, the FOMC voted to hold rates steady amid persistent inflation and a softening labor market. The decision was split, with some dissenters preferring a rate cut, but the committee maintained the current range, reinforcing market pricing for no change through 2026.
Fed Holds Rates Steady in April, Powell Delivers Farewell as Chair
No change jumps to 93%5%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% during Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. The decision reflected ongoing inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, reinforcing market confidence in the 'No change' outcome, which rose to over 90%.
Fed Maintains Interest Rates at April 2026 Meeting, Signals Cautious Outlook
No change jumps to 85%5%
The Federal Reserve again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data and risks from the Middle East conflict. The unanimous decision and forward guidance increased confidence in a continued pause, pushing the 'No change' price higher.
FOMC holds rates amid historic dissent, 8‑4 vote
No change jumps to 94%14%
For the third consecutive meeting the Fed held rates at 3.50‑3.75 %, but four members dissented, the most since 1992. The unexpected division weakened expectations of any cut, driving the 25 bps‑decrease and 50 bps‑decrease probabilities down to single‑digit levels.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair
No change rises to 84%4%
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, 2026, emphasizing ongoing inflation pressures and geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict. The statement showed a hawkish tone with dissenting votes preferring a rate cut, reinforcing market expectations for no change in July.
Fed's April 2026 FOMC meeting ends with no rate change amid divided vote
No change rises to 85%2%
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, with an unusually divided vote reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty. This decision reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming June and July meetings.
Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged Amid High Inflation and Middle East Uncertainty
No change rises to 89%3%
The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive time, citing elevated inflation and high uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, while registering four dissents.
Jerome Powell Confirms Plan to Remain as Fed Governor After Chair Term Ends
At the April 29 press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed he will stay on as a governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity in Fed leadership. This stability likely contributed to market confidence in the Fed's cautious approach and the expectation of no rate change in July.
FOMC Votes Unanimously to Maintain Primary Credit Rate at 3.75%
The Board of Governors unanimously approved maintaining the primary credit rate at 3.75%, consistent with the decision to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged. This policy consistency reinforced market expectations for no rate change in the near term.
FOMC Statement Confirms No Change in Federal Funds Rate
No change rises to 89%3%
The official FOMC statement reiterated the decision to keep the target range unchanged and maintained the interest rate on reserve balances, solidifying market confidence in a steady policy through July.
FOMC maintains rates, signals rate cuts delayed to late 2026
No change rises to 86%4%
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change this year and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in 2026. This reinforced the market's no change pricing and reduced expectations for near-term rate decreases.
Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April Meeting
The FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, noting solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to rising global energy prices. The statement included an easing bias, signaling potential future rate cuts, but the decision to hold rates steady aligned with market expectations and supported the 'No change' outcome.
FOMC Statement Highlights Inflation and Employment Outlook
No change jumps to 82%8%
The FOMC statement emphasized solid economic activity, low job gains, and elevated inflation, reinforcing a cautious approach to rate changes. The statement's tone supported the market's growing belief in a steady rate policy through July.
FOMC holds rates steady, removes easing bias from statement
No change jumps to 87%9%
The April 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the committee removing language indicating a bias toward future rate cuts. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the near term and supported the 'No change' price increase.
Fed minutes reveal cautious outlook, reinforcing no change bets
No change rises to 85%1%
The release of the Federal Reserve minutes on April 25 highlighted a cautious economic outlook and reluctance to change rates soon, which bolstered market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and further diminished chances of rate hikes or cuts.
Department of Justice Drops Criminal Investigation Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 84%4%
The DOJ closed its politically charged criminal probe into Powell related to the Fed's renovation project, removing a major obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair. This development reduced political uncertainty around Fed leadership and supported market confidence in policy continuity.
DOJ drops criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 89%5%
The Department of Justice closed its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to the Federal Reserve's renovation project, removing a major obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation and reducing political uncertainty around Fed leadership and policy.
DOJ Drops Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 85%1%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s building‑renovation probe. The closure removed a political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would remain on a hold‑policy path, nudging “No change” from 84 % to 85 % the next day.
Kevin Warsh Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee for Fed Chair Confirmation
No change rises to 84%4%
Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. He emphasized Fed independence and signaled intentions to reform communication and inflation frameworks, adding uncertainty but also market anticipation for his leadership starting in June.
Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Incoming Fed Chair Amid Hawkish Expectations
No change rises to 88%3%
Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair, known for a hawkish stance, introduced some uncertainty about future rate policy. However, the market maintained a strong expectation of no change in July, reflecting the Fed's current cautious approach.
Senate Banking Committee confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed chair nominee
No change jumps to 85%11%
The Senate Banking Committee confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Analysts interpreted the Trump‑backed nomination as a signal that future policy could tilt hawkish, which reinforced the market’s movement toward “No change” and away from any rate cuts.
Kevin Warsh testifies at Senate Banking Committee for Fed Chair confirmation
No change rises to 84%2%
Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. His nomination amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty influenced market expectations about future Fed policy direction.
March CPI inflation rises 3.3% driven by energy price surge amid Iran war
No change rises to 81%3%
The March CPI report showed a 3.3% annual inflation increase, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran conflict. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes, supporting market expectations of no rate hike in April.
March CPI inflation spikes to 3.3% driven by Iran war energy price surge
No change jumps to 82%5%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year increase in CPI for March 2026, up from 2.4% in February, largely due to soaring gasoline and energy prices caused by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This heightened inflation concerns and complicated the Fed's rate outlook.
March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% amid Iran war energy price surge
No change jumps to 81%6%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year increase in CPI inflation for March 2026, up from 2.4% in February, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran conflict. This heightened inflation reinforced market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady, supporting the 'No change' outcome.
Mixed labor market data tempers rate cut expectations
No change dips to 80%3%
Labor market data released on April 9 showed mixed signals, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut and supporting the 'No change' outcome. This caused a slight dip in the 'No change' price but maintained its overall upward trend.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Openness to Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns
No change rises to 74%2%
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed an increasing number of policymakers considering future rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, especially due to inflationary impacts from the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone caused some market uncertainty but did not significantly shift the dominant 'No change' expectation.
March FOMC Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Over Geopolitical Inflation Risks
No change dips to 80%3%
The release of the March meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether the conflict in Iran would entrench inflation or damage employment, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.
Fed Board unanimously approves maintaining primary credit rate at 3.75%
No change jumps to 80%5%
Ahead of the April FOMC meeting, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the primary credit rate steady, signaling continuity in monetary policy and supporting market expectations of no rate change in the near term.
President Trump escalates Iran war, spiking oil prices and market volatility
No change rises to 78%2%
President Trump announced continued military strikes against Iran, causing oil prices to surge over 10% and triggering stock market declines. The escalation heightened inflation concerns and complicated the Fed's outlook, reinforcing expectations of a cautious monetary policy stance.
Fed officials signal patience amid mixed economic signals
No change jumps to 82%8%
Statements from Federal Reserve officials on April 2 emphasized a patient approach to monetary policy, which supported the market's growing conviction that the Fed would hold rates steady in July, causing a rise in the 'No change' price and a decline in rate hike probabilities.
Powell says inflation outlook is in check, no need to hike rates
No change jumps to 77%9%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard students that inflation expectations were “grounded” despite higher energy prices, signalling no immediate rate hike. The comment reinforced market expectations that the July meeting would likely end with no change, pushing the “No change” price from 68 % to 77 % on 30 Mar.
Fed Chair Powell speaks at Harvard, highlights inflation risks from Middle East conflict
No change drops to 72%5%
Jerome Powell addressed inflation concerns linked to the US-Israel war with Iran, emphasizing the challenge of balancing inflation control and labor market stability. His cautious tone supported market expectations of no immediate rate changes, maintaining the high probability of 'No change'.
Fed Chair Powell signals no immediate rate hikes despite energy price shocks
No change jumps to 78%10%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain stable despite rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict, indicating the Fed does not see a need for immediate interest rate hikes. This reassured markets and supported expectations of no change in upcoming Fed meetings.
Fed Chair Powell says inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices
No change dips to 76%1%
Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations are stable despite recent energy price increases, indicating the Fed does not need to raise rates immediately. This reassured markets that the Fed would likely hold rates steady in upcoming meetings.
Fed Chair Powell Signals Wait-and-See Approach on Inflation Amid Iran War
No change rises to 74%2%
Powell stated the Fed would wait to see how the Iran war affects inflation and the economy, emphasizing uncertainty and suggesting no immediate rate changes. This cautious stance supported the market's growing confidence in no rate change.
Fed Chair Powell Says Central Bank Can 'Wait and See' on War's Inflation Impact
No change jumps to 80%6%
Speaking at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, noting that the central bank can wait to see how the war in Iran affects inflation before adjusting rates.
Economists expect Fed to keep rates steady until September
No change dips to 76%1%
A Reuters poll showed most economists expected the Fed to hold rates steady through the next quarter, reflecting market sentiment against near-term rate changes. This contributed to the decline in prices for rate increases and decreases in the market.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran Reaffirms Dovish Stance Expecting Four Rate Cuts in 2026
25 bps decrease drops to 18%6%
Dissenting Governor Stephen Miran publicly maintained his projection of four interest rate cuts in 2026, highlighting internal division within the FOMC despite the broader committee's consensus of a single cut.
FOMC Releases Updated Projections Maintaining Fed Funds Rate Outlook for 2026
In March, the FOMC released projections holding the Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.4% for 2026, signaling only one rate cut later in the year. This projection supported market expectations for minimal rate changes, contributing to the rising probability of no change in July.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75% in March meeting
No change jumps to 77%9%
The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, signaling a neutral stance amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. This reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate changes, causing the price for 'No change' to rise and for rate change options to fall.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty
No change jumps to 77%9%
The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty from tariffs and a slowing economy. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming July meeting, boosting the 'No change' outcome probability from 68%.
Economic data signals steady inflation and growth, reducing rate hike expectations
No change jumps to 77%9%
On March 20, 2026, economic reports indicated inflation and growth were steady, leading markets to reduce the probability of a 25 bps increase and increase confidence in no change for the July Fed meeting. This shifted market pricing significantly towards the 'No change' outcome.
Market Pricing Shifts Toward No Change After March FOMC
No change jumps to 77%9%
Following the March FOMC meeting, market-implied probabilities for no change in July increased significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance and balanced approach amid geopolitical risks and inflation uncertainty.
Market Bets on Fed Rate Hike Surge as Easing Hopes Fade
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
Market pricing for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike shot up significantly, reversing previous expectations of rate cuts due to persistent inflation and strong economic data.
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