Recent U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75%. Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions have kept headline pressures visible, prompting three dissents for a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting and lifting the 23.5% odds of a modest increase. Trader consensus reflects the Fed’s patient stance pending September and October CPI prints, while softer downside risks limit pricing on rate cuts. Jackson Hole remarks later this month and incoming employment data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$643,686 Обс.
$643,686 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$643,686 Обс.
$643,686 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$125,593 Обс.
2%
25 bps decrease
$187,684 Обс.
4%
No change
$139,170 Обс.
72%
25 bps increase
$134,344 Обс.
24%
50+ bps increase
$56,894 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75%. Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions have kept headline pressures visible, prompting three dissents for a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting and lifting the 23.5% odds of a modest increase. Trader consensus reflects the Fed’s patient stance pending September and October CPI prints, while softer downside risks limit pricing on rate cuts. Jackson Hole remarks later this month and incoming employment data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$643,686Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75%. Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions have kept headline pressures visible, prompting three dissents for a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting and lifting the 23.5% odds of a modest increase. Trader consensus reflects the Fed’s patient stance pending September and October CPI prints, while softer downside risks limit pricing on rate cuts. Jackson Hole remarks later this month and incoming employment data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$643,686Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75%. Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions have kept headline pressures visible, prompting three dissents for a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting and lifting the 23.5% odds of a modest increase. Trader consensus reflects the Fed’s patient stance pending September and October CPI prints, while softer downside risks limit pricing on rate cuts. Jackson Hole remarks later this month and incoming employment data remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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