Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 29, 2026 FOMC decision, with markets now pricing in roughly a 40-60% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch data. Persistent price pressures amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related uncertainty have prompted officials to emphasize data dependence over easing. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 meeting, where updated projections and incoming leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could further influence the policy path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$148,571 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
28%
$148,571 Обс.
June Meeting
$14,616 Обс.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 Обс.
6%
September Meeting
$161 Обс.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 Обс.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 29, 2026 FOMC decision, with markets now pricing in roughly a 40-60% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch data. Persistent price pressures amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related uncertainty have prompted officials to emphasize data dependence over easing. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 meeting, where updated projections and incoming leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could further influence the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$148,571Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 29, 2026 FOMC decision, with markets now pricing in roughly a 40-60% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch data. Persistent price pressures amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related uncertainty have prompted officials to emphasize data dependence over easing. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 meeting, where updated projections and incoming leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could further influence the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$148,571Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reversing earlier expectations of cuts. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 29, 2026 FOMC decision, with markets now pricing in roughly a 40-60% chance of at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch data. Persistent price pressures amid solid economic growth and Middle East-related uncertainty have prompted officials to emphasize data dependence over easing. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 meeting, where updated projections and incoming leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could further influence the policy path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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