Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced multiple proposals to reduce federal capital gains taxes, including inflation indexing of basis (S. 798) and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, with bills introduced in the 119th Congress and floated publicly by administration officials in August 2026 ahead of the midterms. None of these measures have advanced beyond committee referral or gained the legislative momentum required for enactment. Experts note the compressed timeline before November elections makes passage this year extremely unlikely, while deficit concerns and competing priorities further constrain action. The 83% trader consensus on “No” reflects the gap between stated priorities and the procedural, fiscal, and calendar barriers that have blocked similar changes despite unified government.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено16% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
16% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced multiple proposals to reduce federal capital gains taxes, including inflation indexing of basis (S. 798) and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, with bills introduced in the 119th Congress and floated publicly by administration officials in August 2026 ahead of the midterms. None of these measures have advanced beyond committee referral or gained the legislative momentum required for enactment. Experts note the compressed timeline before November elections makes passage this year extremely unlikely, while deficit concerns and competing priorities further constrain action. The 83% trader consensus on “No” reflects the gap between stated priorities and the procedural, fiscal, and calendar barriers that have blocked similar changes despite unified government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced multiple proposals to reduce federal capital gains taxes, including inflation indexing of basis (S. 798) and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, with bills introduced in the 119th Congress and floated publicly by administration officials in August 2026 ahead of the midterms. None of these measures have advanced beyond committee referral or gained the legislative momentum required for enactment. Experts note the compressed timeline before November elections makes passage this year extremely unlikely, while deficit concerns and competing priorities further constrain action. The 83% trader consensus on “No” reflects the gap between stated priorities and the procedural, fiscal, and calendar barriers that have blocked similar changes despite unified government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced multiple proposals to reduce federal capital gains taxes, including inflation indexing of basis (S. 798) and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, with bills introduced in the 119th Congress and floated publicly by administration officials in August 2026 ahead of the midterms. None of these measures have advanced beyond committee referral or gained the legislative momentum required for enactment. Experts note the compressed timeline before November elections makes passage this year extremely unlikely, while deficit concerns and competing priorities further constrain action. The 83% trader consensus on “No” reflects the gap between stated priorities and the procedural, fiscal, and calendar barriers that have blocked similar changes despite unified government.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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