Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a lingering heat dome influence over the Midwest, supporting daily highs near or slightly above the 85°F July normal for Chicago on July 17. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day lake breeze effects, keeping the most probable range between 88–91°F. Historical mid-July analogs and current 6–10 day outlooks reinforce above-average temperatures without strong signals for extremes above 94°F, while NWS verification metrics highlight typical 2–4°F uncertainty in 24-hour maximum forecasts. Traders appear to weight the consensus central tendency most heavily, with smaller probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter outliers pending the next model update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on July 17?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 17?
90-91°F 33%
88-89°F 32%
92-93°F 18%
87°F or below 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 17, 2026
87°F or below
18%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
33%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 33%
88-89°F 32%
92-93°F 18%
87°F or below 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 17, 2026
87°F or below
$130 Обс.
18%
88-89°F
$88 Обс.
32%
90-91°F
$67 Обс.
33%
92-93°F
$78 Обс.
18%
94-95°F
$43 Обс.
4%
96-97°F
$385 Обс.
1%
98-99°F
$38 Обс.
<1%
100-101°F
$1,218 Обс.
<1%
102-103°F
$148 Обс.
<1%
104-105°F
$143 Обс.
<1%
106°F or higher
$38 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a lingering heat dome influence over the Midwest, supporting daily highs near or slightly above the 85°F July normal for Chicago on July 17. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day lake breeze effects, keeping the most probable range between 88–91°F. Historical mid-July analogs and current 6–10 day outlooks reinforce above-average temperatures without strong signals for extremes above 94°F, while NWS verification metrics highlight typical 2–4°F uncertainty in 24-hour maximum forecasts. Traders appear to weight the consensus central tendency most heavily, with smaller probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter outliers pending the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,376Дата завершення
Jul 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a lingering heat dome influence over the Midwest, supporting daily highs near or slightly above the 85°F July normal for Chicago on July 17. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day lake breeze effects, keeping the most probable range between 88–91°F. Historical mid-July analogs and current 6–10 day outlooks reinforce above-average temperatures without strong signals for extremes above 94°F, while NWS verification metrics highlight typical 2–4°F uncertainty in 24-hour maximum forecasts. Traders appear to weight the consensus central tendency most heavily, with smaller probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter outliers pending the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,376Дата завершення
Jul 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a lingering heat dome influence over the Midwest, supporting daily highs near or slightly above the 85°F July normal for Chicago on July 17. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day lake breeze effects, keeping the most probable range between 88–91°F. Historical mid-July analogs and current 6–10 day outlooks reinforce above-average temperatures without strong signals for extremes above 94°F, while NWS verification metrics highlight typical 2–4°F uncertainty in 24-hour maximum forecasts. Traders appear to weight the consensus central tendency most heavily, with smaller probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter outliers pending the next model update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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