Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on August 8 point to a high near 100°F under sunny skies and light southerly flow, consistent with mid-August climatology where average highs reach 96–99°F. This positions the 98–101°F range as the dominant market outcome, with traders weighting recent model consensus and absence of significant frontal passages or moisture surges that could suppress or boost temperatures. Historical analogs show occasional 102–103°F spikes possible under stronger ridging, but current outlooks lack signals for extreme heat, keeping those probabilities low while supporting modest weight on the 96–97°F bin if boundary-layer mixing exceeds expectations. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these implied probabilities.