Recent atmospheric conditions, including warm subtropical air advection and limited cloud cover under easterly flow, have positioned Guangzhou for a daily maximum near 35°C on September 15, aligning with historical September peaks of 35.6°C recorded in 2021 and model consensus from regional forecasts. This drives the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for exactly 35°C, reflecting trader confidence in surface observations from official meteorological stations that prioritize peak readings before any afternoon convection develops. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger onshore moisture increasing afternoon showers, which would cap temperatures below the threshold, or revised station data confirming a lower peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
35°C 99.8%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
НОВЕ
$35,066 Обс.
НОВЕ
$35,066 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
35°C 99.8%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
НОВЕ
$35,066 Обс.
НОВЕ
$35,066 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
27°C or below
$382 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$360 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$614 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$1,037 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$1,742 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$2,683 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$3,845 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$3,784 Обс.
<1%
35°C
$7,680 Обс.
100%
36°C
$10,158 Обс.
<1%
37°C or higher
$2,782 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions, including warm subtropical air advection and limited cloud cover under easterly flow, have positioned Guangzhou for a daily maximum near 35°C on September 15, aligning with historical September peaks of 35.6°C recorded in 2021 and model consensus from regional forecasts. This drives the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for exactly 35°C, reflecting trader confidence in surface observations from official meteorological stations that prioritize peak readings before any afternoon convection develops. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger onshore moisture increasing afternoon showers, which would cap temperatures below the threshold, or revised station data confirming a lower peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$35,066Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions, including warm subtropical air advection and limited cloud cover under easterly flow, have positioned Guangzhou for a daily maximum near 35°C on September 15, aligning with historical September peaks of 35.6°C recorded in 2021 and model consensus from regional forecasts. This drives the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for exactly 35°C, reflecting trader confidence in surface observations from official meteorological stations that prioritize peak readings before any afternoon convection develops. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger onshore moisture increasing afternoon showers, which would cap temperatures below the threshold, or revised station data confirming a lower peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$35,066Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent atmospheric conditions, including warm subtropical air advection and limited cloud cover under easterly flow, have positioned Guangzhou for a daily maximum near 35°C on September 15, aligning with historical September peaks of 35.6°C recorded in 2021 and model consensus from regional forecasts. This drives the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for exactly 35°C, reflecting trader confidence in surface observations from official meteorological stations that prioritize peak readings before any afternoon convection develops. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger onshore moisture increasing afternoon showers, which would cap temperatures below the threshold, or revised station data confirming a lower peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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