Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on September 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?
32°C 46%
33°C 36%
31°C 11%
30°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
11%
32°C
46%
33°C
25%
34°C
5%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
2%
32°C 46%
33°C 36%
31°C 11%
30°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
$5 Обс.
2%
27°C
$10 Обс.
2%
28°C
$7 Обс.
2%
29°C
$15 Обс.
3%
30°C
$0 Обс.
8%
31°C
$0 Обс.
11%
32°C
$1,610 Обс.
46%
33°C
$6 Обс.
25%
34°C
$88 Обс.
5%
35°C
$10 Обс.
4%
36°C or higher
$10 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,761Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,761Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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