**Northeast monsoon flow combined with residual moisture from a departing South China Sea low-pressure system is the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 29–33 °C for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory highlights easterly to northeasterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, partly cloudy skies, and a 40–60 % chance of showers or thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Ensemble model spreads show highs ranging from the upper 20s under thicker cloud cover to the low 30s if breaks allow stronger insolation, with sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C providing a modest warm boundary layer. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical two days out—explains why no single bin exceeds 20 % implied probability and why traders are weighting recent model runs and the next HKO briefing heavily.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
32°C 38%
33°C 37%
31°C 27%
35°C or higher 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
4%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
9%
30°C
16%
31°C
27%
32°C
38%
33°C
37%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
18%
32°C 38%
33°C 37%
31°C 27%
35°C or higher 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Обс.
4%
26°C
$10 Обс.
1%
27°C
$10 Обс.
1%
28°C
$13 Обс.
1%
29°C
$3 Обс.
9%
30°C
$3 Обс.
16%
31°C
$8 Обс.
27%
32°C
$8 Обс.
38%
33°C
$11 Обс.
37%
34°C
$10 Обс.
5%
35°C or higher
$10 Обс.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon flow combined with residual moisture from a departing South China Sea low-pressure system is the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 29–33 °C for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory highlights easterly to northeasterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, partly cloudy skies, and a 40–60 % chance of showers or thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Ensemble model spreads show highs ranging from the upper 20s under thicker cloud cover to the low 30s if breaks allow stronger insolation, with sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C providing a modest warm boundary layer. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical two days out—explains why no single bin exceeds 20 % implied probability and why traders are weighting recent model runs and the next HKO briefing heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$96Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon flow combined with residual moisture from a departing South China Sea low-pressure system is the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 29–33 °C for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory highlights easterly to northeasterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, partly cloudy skies, and a 40–60 % chance of showers or thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Ensemble model spreads show highs ranging from the upper 20s under thicker cloud cover to the low 30s if breaks allow stronger insolation, with sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C providing a modest warm boundary layer. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical two days out—explains why no single bin exceeds 20 % implied probability and why traders are weighting recent model runs and the next HKO briefing heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$96Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Northeast monsoon flow combined with residual moisture from a departing South China Sea low-pressure system is the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 29–33 °C for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory highlights easterly to northeasterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, partly cloudy skies, and a 40–60 % chance of showers or thunderstorms that could limit afternoon heating. Ensemble model spreads show highs ranging from the upper 20s under thicker cloud cover to the low 30s if breaks allow stronger insolation, with sea-surface temperatures near 28–29 °C providing a modest warm boundary layer. This genuine forecast uncertainty—typical two days out—explains why no single bin exceeds 20 % implied probability and why traders are weighting recent model runs and the next HKO briefing heavily.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання