**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher. Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses. Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
24°C 51%
23°C 30%
25°C 14%
22°C 4%
НОВЕ
$11,136 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,136 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
30%
24°C
51%
25°C
14%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 51%
23°C 30%
25°C 14%
22°C 4%
НОВЕ
$11,136 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,136 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$266 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$349 Обс.
1%
21°C
$660 Обс.
2%
22°C
$681 Обс.
4%
23°C
$3,112 Обс.
30%
24°C
$1,716 Обс.
51%
25°C
$2,538 Обс.
14%
26°C
$1,169 Обс.
4%
27°C
$228 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$208 Обс.
<1%
29°C or higher
$208 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher.
Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses.
Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,136Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher.
Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses.
Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,136Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher. Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses. Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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