Market-implied odds center on 32–33°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, reflecting a monsoon break that has reduced southwest monsoon influence and allowed easterly flow with localized heating potential. Persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and 60–80% thunderstorm chances—driven by daytime convection—limit peak insolation and cap extremes, consistent with September climatology of 31°C averages and frequent afternoon rain. Model consensus from GFS and regional guidance shows highs near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C before storms develop. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical variability in landfall timing and intensity of convective cells.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
33°C 37%
32°C 31%
29°C 12%
31°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
7%
31°C
12%
32°C
31%
33°C
37%
34°C
10%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
33°C 37%
32°C 31%
29°C 12%
31°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
27°C
$0 Обс.
2%
28°C
$0 Обс.
4%
29°C
$0 Обс.
12%
30°C
$0 Обс.
7%
31°C
$0 Обс.
12%
32°C
$52 Обс.
31%
33°C
$728 Обс.
37%
34°C
$0 Обс.
10%
35°C
$0 Обс.
2%
36°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds center on 32–33°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, reflecting a monsoon break that has reduced southwest monsoon influence and allowed easterly flow with localized heating potential. Persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and 60–80% thunderstorm chances—driven by daytime convection—limit peak insolation and cap extremes, consistent with September climatology of 31°C averages and frequent afternoon rain. Model consensus from GFS and regional guidance shows highs near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C before storms develop. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical variability in landfall timing and intensity of convective cells.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$779Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds center on 32–33°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, reflecting a monsoon break that has reduced southwest monsoon influence and allowed easterly flow with localized heating potential. Persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and 60–80% thunderstorm chances—driven by daytime convection—limit peak insolation and cap extremes, consistent with September climatology of 31°C averages and frequent afternoon rain. Model consensus from GFS and regional guidance shows highs near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C before storms develop. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical variability in landfall timing and intensity of convective cells.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$779Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds center on 32–33°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, reflecting a monsoon break that has reduced southwest monsoon influence and allowed easterly flow with localized heating potential. Persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and 60–80% thunderstorm chances—driven by daytime convection—limit peak insolation and cap extremes, consistent with September climatology of 31°C averages and frequent afternoon rain. Model consensus from GFS and regional guidance shows highs near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with any brief clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 33°C before storms develop. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical variability in landfall timing and intensity of convective cells.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання