**Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts position Chicago’s September 16 high temperature in the low 70s.** Official guidance calls for a mostly cloudy day with a 40% chance of showers, northeast winds of 5–10 mph, and a high near 72°F—conditions that suppress daytime warming relative to the September climatological average of 76°F. Multiple sources, including NWS Chicago and ensemble guidance, converge on 71–72°F, with limited upside potential from additional cloud cover or showers. Trader positioning reflects this consensus: the 72–73°F bin leads at 46.5% implied probability, followed by 70–71°F at 31%, while probabilities drop sharply above 74°F. The narrow spread around the low 70s indicates limited forecast uncertainty at this short range, with resolution hinging on whether the official daily maximum (typically recorded at O’Hare or Midway) falls in the 70–73°F window. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on September 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 16?
72-73°F 47%
70-71°F 31%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
47%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 47%
70-71°F 31%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
63°F or below
$224 Обс.
<1%
64-65°F
$309 Обс.
<1%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
2%
68-69°F
$780 Обс.
6%
70-71°F
$1,711 Обс.
31%
72-73°F
$1,488 Обс.
47%
74-75°F
$1,127 Обс.
16%
76-77°F
$312 Обс.
3%
78-79°F
$299 Обс.
<1%
80-81°F
$319 Обс.
<1%
82°F or higher
$224 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts position Chicago’s September 16 high temperature in the low 70s.** Official guidance calls for a mostly cloudy day with a 40% chance of showers, northeast winds of 5–10 mph, and a high near 72°F—conditions that suppress daytime warming relative to the September climatological average of 76°F. Multiple sources, including NWS Chicago and ensemble guidance, converge on 71–72°F, with limited upside potential from additional cloud cover or showers.
Trader positioning reflects this consensus: the 72–73°F bin leads at 46.5% implied probability, followed by 70–71°F at 31%, while probabilities drop sharply above 74°F. The narrow spread around the low 70s indicates limited forecast uncertainty at this short range, with resolution hinging on whether the official daily maximum (typically recorded at O’Hare or Midway) falls in the 70–73°F window. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,793Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts position Chicago’s September 16 high temperature in the low 70s.** Official guidance calls for a mostly cloudy day with a 40% chance of showers, northeast winds of 5–10 mph, and a high near 72°F—conditions that suppress daytime warming relative to the September climatological average of 76°F. Multiple sources, including NWS Chicago and ensemble guidance, converge on 71–72°F, with limited upside potential from additional cloud cover or showers.
Trader positioning reflects this consensus: the 72–73°F bin leads at 46.5% implied probability, followed by 70–71°F at 31%, while probabilities drop sharply above 74°F. The narrow spread around the low 70s indicates limited forecast uncertainty at this short range, with resolution hinging on whether the official daily maximum (typically recorded at O’Hare or Midway) falls in the 70–73°F window. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,793Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts position Chicago’s September 16 high temperature in the low 70s.** Official guidance calls for a mostly cloudy day with a 40% chance of showers, northeast winds of 5–10 mph, and a high near 72°F—conditions that suppress daytime warming relative to the September climatological average of 76°F. Multiple sources, including NWS Chicago and ensemble guidance, converge on 71–72°F, with limited upside potential from additional cloud cover or showers. Trader positioning reflects this consensus: the 72–73°F bin leads at 46.5% implied probability, followed by 70–71°F at 31%, while probabilities drop sharply above 74°F. The narrow spread around the low 70s indicates limited forecast uncertainty at this short range, with resolution hinging on whether the official daily maximum (typically recorded at O’Hare or Midway) falls in the 70–73°F window. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання