Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Austin project a high of 99–100°F on September 16 under partly cloudy skies, light southeast winds, and elevated humidity that pushes heat indices above 106°F. This aligns with the market’s leading 98–99°F outcome at 60.5% implied probability, as afternoon readings have stabilized near the upper 90s following a 101°F peak the prior day. Persistent southerly flow and minimal cloud cover have limited cooling, while historical September averages near 91°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping the 100–101°F bin at 31% as a plausible upside if insolation strengthens. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of a few degrees when assigning probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on September 16?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 16?
100-101°F 50%
98-99°F 41%
102-103°F 4%
94-95°F 2%
$11,223 Обс.
$11,223 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
41%
100-101°F
50%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 50%
98-99°F 41%
102-103°F 4%
94-95°F 2%
$11,223 Обс.
$11,223 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
89°F or below
$449 Обс.
<1%
90-91°F
$444 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$384 Обс.
<1%
94-95°F
$50 Обс.
2%
96-97°F
$1,405 Обс.
2%
98-99°F
$1,916 Обс.
41%
100-101°F
$3,357 Обс.
50%
102-103°F
$1,437 Обс.
4%
104-105°F
$883 Обс.
<1%
106-107°F
$686 Обс.
1%
108°F or higher
$214 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Austin project a high of 99–100°F on September 16 under partly cloudy skies, light southeast winds, and elevated humidity that pushes heat indices above 106°F. This aligns with the market’s leading 98–99°F outcome at 60.5% implied probability, as afternoon readings have stabilized near the upper 90s following a 101°F peak the prior day. Persistent southerly flow and minimal cloud cover have limited cooling, while historical September averages near 91°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping the 100–101°F bin at 31% as a plausible upside if insolation strengthens. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of a few degrees when assigning probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,223Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Austin project a high of 99–100°F on September 16 under partly cloudy skies, light southeast winds, and elevated humidity that pushes heat indices above 106°F. This aligns with the market’s leading 98–99°F outcome at 60.5% implied probability, as afternoon readings have stabilized near the upper 90s following a 101°F peak the prior day. Persistent southerly flow and minimal cloud cover have limited cooling, while historical September averages near 91°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping the 100–101°F bin at 31% as a plausible upside if insolation strengthens. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of a few degrees when assigning probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,223Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Austin project a high of 99–100°F on September 16 under partly cloudy skies, light southeast winds, and elevated humidity that pushes heat indices above 106°F. This aligns with the market’s leading 98–99°F outcome at 60.5% implied probability, as afternoon readings have stabilized near the upper 90s following a 101°F peak the prior day. Persistent southerly flow and minimal cloud cover have limited cooling, while historical September averages near 91°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping the 100–101°F bin at 31% as a plausible upside if insolation strengthens. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of a few degrees when assigning probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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