High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wuhan on September 18?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on September 18?
24°C 25%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
26°C 22%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
4%
21°C
8%
22°C
16%
23°C
22%
24°C
25%
25°C
25%
26°C
22%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
24°C 25%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
26°C 22%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Обс.
4%
21°C
$0 Обс.
8%
22°C
$0 Обс.
16%
23°C
$0 Обс.
22%
24°C
$0 Обс.
25%
25°C
$0 Обс.
25%
26°C
$0 Обс.
22%
27°C
$0 Обс.
7%
28°C
$0 Обс.
4%
29°C
$0 Обс.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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