Recent forecast model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a maximum of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under clear to partly cloudy skies, northeasterly flow, and stable high pressure following a sharp temperature drop earlier in the week. This cooling episode, driven by a passing frontal system that ended a late-summer heat surge, has anchored trader expectations around these values, reflected in the 56% implied probability for 28°C and 38.5% for 27°C. Light winds and minimal moisture limit convective development or further moderation, while historical September averages near 26°C provide context for the modest upward bias in current runs. Updated model guidance and any late adjustments to the steering pattern remain the key near-term catalysts ahead of the 48-hour resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 56%
27°C 28%
29°C 18%
25°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
6%
27°C
28%
28°C
56%
29°C
18%
30°C
6%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 56%
27°C 28%
29°C 18%
25°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Обс.
1%
23°C
$0 Обс.
1%
24°C
$0 Обс.
2%
25°C
$0 Обс.
6%
26°C
$96 Обс.
6%
27°C
$174 Обс.
28%
28°C
$262 Обс.
56%
29°C
$13 Обс.
18%
30°C
$5 Обс.
6%
31°C
$0 Обс.
5%
32°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a maximum of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under clear to partly cloudy skies, northeasterly flow, and stable high pressure following a sharp temperature drop earlier in the week. This cooling episode, driven by a passing frontal system that ended a late-summer heat surge, has anchored trader expectations around these values, reflected in the 56% implied probability for 28°C and 38.5% for 27°C. Light winds and minimal moisture limit convective development or further moderation, while historical September averages near 26°C provide context for the modest upward bias in current runs. Updated model guidance and any late adjustments to the steering pattern remain the key near-term catalysts ahead of the 48-hour resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$550Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a maximum of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under clear to partly cloudy skies, northeasterly flow, and stable high pressure following a sharp temperature drop earlier in the week. This cooling episode, driven by a passing frontal system that ended a late-summer heat surge, has anchored trader expectations around these values, reflected in the 56% implied probability for 28°C and 38.5% for 27°C. Light winds and minimal moisture limit convective development or further moderation, while historical September averages near 26°C provide context for the modest upward bias in current runs. Updated model guidance and any late adjustments to the steering pattern remain the key near-term catalysts ahead of the 48-hour resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$550Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a maximum of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under clear to partly cloudy skies, northeasterly flow, and stable high pressure following a sharp temperature drop earlier in the week. This cooling episode, driven by a passing frontal system that ended a late-summer heat surge, has anchored trader expectations around these values, reflected in the 56% implied probability for 28°C and 38.5% for 27°C. Light winds and minimal moisture limit convective development or further moderation, while historical September averages near 26°C provide context for the modest upward bias in current runs. Updated model guidance and any late adjustments to the steering pattern remain the key near-term catalysts ahead of the 48-hour resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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