Frequent thunderstorms expected across Metro Manila on September 18, 2026, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds evenly distributed across 29–36 °C. Official guidance and ensemble models indicate 60–80 % rain probability with daytime maxima typically near 30–32 °C, but convective timing and cloud cover can easily shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Persistent southwest monsoon flow, high humidity near 80 %, and urban heat retention create a narrow window for higher readings if storms arrive after 14:00 local time or remain scattered; earlier or heavier rain favors the lower end of the range. Historical September highs average 31–32 °C, yet day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and weak steering patterns sustains broad trader consensus rather than strong clustering around any single threshold. Updated model runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 18?
31°C 40%
32°C 40%
33°C 39%
29°C 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
36%
30°C
35%
31°C
40%
32°C
40%
33°C
39%
34°C
34%
35°C
17%
36°C
30%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
1%
31°C 40%
32°C 40%
33°C 39%
29°C 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Обс.
4%
29°C
$0 Обс.
36%
30°C
$0 Обс.
35%
31°C
$0 Обс.
40%
32°C
$0 Обс.
40%
33°C
$0 Обс.
39%
34°C
$0 Обс.
34%
35°C
$0 Обс.
17%
36°C
$0 Обс.
30%
37°C
$0 Обс.
2%
38°C or higher
$0 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Frequent thunderstorms expected across Metro Manila on September 18, 2026, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds evenly distributed across 29–36 °C. Official guidance and ensemble models indicate 60–80 % rain probability with daytime maxima typically near 30–32 °C, but convective timing and cloud cover can easily shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Persistent southwest monsoon flow, high humidity near 80 %, and urban heat retention create a narrow window for higher readings if storms arrive after 14:00 local time or remain scattered; earlier or heavier rain favors the lower end of the range. Historical September highs average 31–32 °C, yet day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and weak steering patterns sustains broad trader consensus rather than strong clustering around any single threshold. Updated model runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Frequent thunderstorms expected across Metro Manila on September 18, 2026, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds evenly distributed across 29–36 °C. Official guidance and ensemble models indicate 60–80 % rain probability with daytime maxima typically near 30–32 °C, but convective timing and cloud cover can easily shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Persistent southwest monsoon flow, high humidity near 80 %, and urban heat retention create a narrow window for higher readings if storms arrive after 14:00 local time or remain scattered; earlier or heavier rain favors the lower end of the range. Historical September highs average 31–32 °C, yet day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and weak steering patterns sustains broad trader consensus rather than strong clustering around any single threshold. Updated model runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Frequent thunderstorms expected across Metro Manila on September 18, 2026, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds evenly distributed across 29–36 °C. Official guidance and ensemble models indicate 60–80 % rain probability with daytime maxima typically near 30–32 °C, but convective timing and cloud cover can easily shift the peak by 2–3 °C. Persistent southwest monsoon flow, high humidity near 80 %, and urban heat retention create a narrow window for higher readings if storms arrive after 14:00 local time or remain scattered; earlier or heavier rain favors the lower end of the range. Historical September highs average 31–32 °C, yet day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and weak steering patterns sustains broad trader consensus rather than strong clustering around any single threshold. Updated model runs and satellite trends over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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