Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on September 15 under northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with the market-implied 63.5% probability for 23°C, while the 21.5% on 22°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the 12.5% on 24°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon insolation. Recent observations show stable high pressure and dew points near 13–14°C, consistent with historical mid-September climatology but tempered by the current wind regime. Updated model guidance tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
23°C 64%
22°C 23%
24°C 13%
21°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
23%
23°C
64%
24°C
13%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 64%
22°C 23%
24°C 13%
21°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
18°C or below
$308 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$341 Обс.
1%
20°C
$386 Обс.
1%
21°C
$287 Обс.
4%
22°C
$779 Обс.
23%
23°C
$1,213 Обс.
64%
24°C
$1,488 Обс.
13%
25°C
$387 Обс.
1%
26°C
$364 Обс.
1%
27°C
$275 Обс.
1%
28°C or higher
$129 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on September 15 under northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with the market-implied 63.5% probability for 23°C, while the 21.5% on 22°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the 12.5% on 24°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon insolation. Recent observations show stable high pressure and dew points near 13–14°C, consistent with historical mid-September climatology but tempered by the current wind regime. Updated model guidance tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,957Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on September 15 under northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with the market-implied 63.5% probability for 23°C, while the 21.5% on 22°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the 12.5% on 24°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon insolation. Recent observations show stable high pressure and dew points near 13–14°C, consistent with historical mid-September climatology but tempered by the current wind regime. Updated model guidance tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5,957Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 23°C in Istanbul on September 15 under northeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with the market-implied 63.5% probability for 23°C, while the 21.5% on 22°C reflects minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the 12.5% on 24°C accounts for residual uncertainty in afternoon insolation. Recent observations show stable high pressure and dew points near 13–14°C, consistent with historical mid-September climatology but tempered by the current wind regime. Updated model guidance tomorrow morning will refine the exact peak before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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