Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14 most likely between 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and minimal diurnal heating. This consensus underpins the market's strong tilt toward 20°C at 43.5% implied probability, followed by 21°C at 32%. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have kept forecast spreads narrow over the past 48 hours, with only modest model disagreement on afternoon maxima. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will refine cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, potentially shifting odds if clearer conditions allow slightly higher readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
20°C 44%
21°C 32%
19°C 20%
22°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
20%
20°C
44%
21°C
32%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
1%
20°C 44%
21°C 32%
19°C 20%
22°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$237 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$142 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$67 Обс.
1%
16°C
$51 Обс.
1%
17°C
$153 Обс.
2%
18°C
$146 Обс.
4%
19°C
$1,166 Обс.
20%
20°C
$969 Обс.
44%
21°C
$1,432 Обс.
32%
22°C
$139 Обс.
5%
23°C or higher
$126 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14 most likely between 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and minimal diurnal heating. This consensus underpins the market's strong tilt toward 20°C at 43.5% implied probability, followed by 21°C at 32%. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have kept forecast spreads narrow over the past 48 hours, with only modest model disagreement on afternoon maxima. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will refine cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, potentially shifting odds if clearer conditions allow slightly higher readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,628Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14 most likely between 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and minimal diurnal heating. This consensus underpins the market's strong tilt toward 20°C at 43.5% implied probability, followed by 21°C at 32%. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have kept forecast spreads narrow over the past 48 hours, with only modest model disagreement on afternoon maxima. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will refine cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, potentially shifting odds if clearer conditions allow slightly higher readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,628Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14 most likely between 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly flow and minimal diurnal heating. This consensus underpins the market's strong tilt toward 20°C at 43.5% implied probability, followed by 21°C at 32%. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have kept forecast spreads narrow over the past 48 hours, with only modest model disagreement on afternoon maxima. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will refine cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, potentially shifting odds if clearer conditions allow slightly higher readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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