Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 57°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, light west-southwest winds, and limited cloud cover under a stable high-pressure ridge are expected to moderate overnight cooling, keeping the low in the mid-50s consistent with the September climatological average of 55.9°F. Clear skies and dry conditions over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus, with historical analogs showing rare excursions below 52°F absent strong offshore flow or radiational cooling under calm, clear nights. Traders appear to weigh these factors against the small but non-zero chance of localized marine-layer enhancement or model shifts in the final forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
47°F or below 86%
56-57°F 57%
66°F or higher 47%
50-51°F 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
86%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
29%
56-57°F
47%
58-59°F
22%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
17%
66°F or higher
47%
47°F or below 86%
56-57°F 57%
66°F or higher 47%
50-51°F 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Обс.
86%
48-49°F
$0 Обс.
17%
50-51°F
$0 Обс.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
29%
56-57°F
$121 Обс.
47%
58-59°F
$50 Обс.
22%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
18%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
17%
66°F or higher
$0 Обс.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 57°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, light west-southwest winds, and limited cloud cover under a stable high-pressure ridge are expected to moderate overnight cooling, keeping the low in the mid-50s consistent with the September climatological average of 55.9°F. Clear skies and dry conditions over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus, with historical analogs showing rare excursions below 52°F absent strong offshore flow or radiational cooling under calm, clear nights. Traders appear to weigh these factors against the small but non-zero chance of localized marine-layer enhancement or model shifts in the final forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$171Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 57°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, light west-southwest winds, and limited cloud cover under a stable high-pressure ridge are expected to moderate overnight cooling, keeping the low in the mid-50s consistent with the September climatological average of 55.9°F. Clear skies and dry conditions over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus, with historical analogs showing rare excursions below 52°F absent strong offshore flow or radiational cooling under calm, clear nights. Traders appear to weigh these factors against the small but non-zero chance of localized marine-layer enhancement or model shifts in the final forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$171Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 57°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 50% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, light west-southwest winds, and limited cloud cover under a stable high-pressure ridge are expected to moderate overnight cooling, keeping the low in the mid-50s consistent with the September climatological average of 55.9°F. Clear skies and dry conditions over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus, with historical analogs showing rare excursions below 52°F absent strong offshore flow or radiational cooling under calm, clear nights. Traders appear to weigh these factors against the small but non-zero chance of localized marine-layer enhancement or model shifts in the final forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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