Numerical weather prediction models, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, currently indicate Istanbul’s June 11 daily maximum will most likely fall between 24°C and 25°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Early June climatology supports this range, as seasonal warming from the Black Sea and Mediterranean influences typically produces highs averaging near 25°C before peak summer conditions develop later in the month. Minor differences in steering patterns, boundary-layer moisture, and local sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between 23°C and 26°C brackets, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the absence of anomalous synoptic forcing. Updated short-range model ensembles ahead of resolution will provide the next key data points for refining these temperature thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 11?
24°C 36%
25°C 35%
23°C 18%
26°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
18%
24°C
36%
25°C
35%
26°C
10%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
24°C 36%
25°C 35%
23°C 18%
26°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 11, 2026
18°C or below
$250 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$130 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$66 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$154 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$155 Обс.
2%
23°C
$213 Обс.
18%
24°C
$206 Обс.
36%
25°C
$211 Обс.
35%
26°C
$141 Обс.
10%
27°C
$193 Обс.
2%
28°C or higher
$234 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, currently indicate Istanbul’s June 11 daily maximum will most likely fall between 24°C and 25°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Early June climatology supports this range, as seasonal warming from the Black Sea and Mediterranean influences typically produces highs averaging near 25°C before peak summer conditions develop later in the month. Minor differences in steering patterns, boundary-layer moisture, and local sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between 23°C and 26°C brackets, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the absence of anomalous synoptic forcing. Updated short-range model ensembles ahead of resolution will provide the next key data points for refining these temperature thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 1:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,951Дата завершення
Jun 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, currently indicate Istanbul’s June 11 daily maximum will most likely fall between 24°C and 25°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Early June climatology supports this range, as seasonal warming from the Black Sea and Mediterranean influences typically produces highs averaging near 25°C before peak summer conditions develop later in the month. Minor differences in steering patterns, boundary-layer moisture, and local sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between 23°C and 26°C brackets, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the absence of anomalous synoptic forcing. Updated short-range model ensembles ahead of resolution will provide the next key data points for refining these temperature thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,951Дата завершення
Jun 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather prediction models, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, currently indicate Istanbul’s June 11 daily maximum will most likely fall between 24°C and 25°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Early June climatology supports this range, as seasonal warming from the Black Sea and Mediterranean influences typically produces highs averaging near 25°C before peak summer conditions develop later in the month. Minor differences in steering patterns, boundary-layer moisture, and local sea-breeze effects create the narrow spread between 23°C and 26°C brackets, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the absence of anomalous synoptic forcing. Updated short-range model ensembles ahead of resolution will provide the next key data points for refining these temperature thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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