**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.** This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
39%
>1.29ºC
40%
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$83 Обс.
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
$63 Обс.
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47 Обс.
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Обс.
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 Обс.
39%
>1.29ºC
$54 Обс.
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.**
This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$377Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.**
This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$377Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures recently reaching +0.7 to +0.9°C and forecasts indicating further strengthening through boreal summer, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for a July 2026 global temperature anomaly near 1.1–1.24°C above the pre-industrial baseline.** This rapid transition from neutral or weak La Niña conditions aligns with high model consensus from NOAA, IRI, and WMO ensembles projecting above-normal surface temperatures across most of the globe during June–August 2026, reinforced by the underlying multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Differentiation among the tightly bunched market outcomes (47.5% for 1.10–1.14°C, 45% for 1.20–1.24°C) stems from uncertainty in exact July timing, the pace of El Niño intensification, internal atmospheric variability, and minor contributions from other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole. Upcoming weekly Niño indices, updated seasonal model runs, and July observational data releases will provide key signals for refining these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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